Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program

By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that ri...

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Main Authors:	Chen, Shaohua, Ravallion, Martin
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	SOCIAL IMPACT SOCIAL ANALYSIS IMPACT EVALUATION ANTI-POVERTY POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS INCOME GENERATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE INCOME AGRICULTURE ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES AVERAGE RATE BANK LENDING BENCHMARK BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION CAPACITY BUILDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS COMPARISON GROUPS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION CUMULATIVE INCOME DATA COLLECTION DATA SET DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT DOWNWARD BIAS EMPIRICAL FINDINGS EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL RESULTS EMPLOYMENT EVALUATION DESIGN EVALUATION METHODS EXPECTED VALUE EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FORESTRY GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PROSPECTS GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD SIZE INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DECLINE INCOME GAINS INCOME IMPACTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SOURCES INCOMES INEQUALITY INSURANCE INTERVENTION LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES LOW INCOME MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL UTILITY MATCHING METHODS MEAN CONSUMPTION MEAN DIFFERENCES MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOMES MEASUREMENT ERROR 0 HYPOTHESIS PERMANENT INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR AREAS POOR COUNTRIES POOR PEOPLE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY IMPACTS POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAMS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER REGIONAL GROWTH SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SELECTION BIAS TARGETING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER PAYMENTS WEALTH HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/05/2360830/hidden-impact-ex-post-evaluation-anti-poverty-program http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18187

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recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-181872021-04-23T14:03:41Z Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program Chen, Shaohua Ravallion, Martin SOCIAL IMPACT SOCIAL ANALYSIS IMPACT EVALUATION ANTI-POVERTY POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS INCOME GENERATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE INCOME AGRICULTURE ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES AVERAGE RATE BANK LENDING BENCHMARK BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION CAPACITY BUILDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS COMPARISON GROUPS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION CUMULATIVE INCOME DATA COLLECTION DATA SET DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT DOWNWARD BIAS EMPIRICAL FINDINGS EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL RESULTS EMPLOYMENT EVALUATION DESIGN EVALUATION METHODS EXPECTED VALUE EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FORESTRY GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PROSPECTS GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPACT EVALUATION INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DECLINE INCOME GAINS INCOME IMPACTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SOURCES INCOMES INEQUALITY INSURANCE INTERVENTION LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES LOW INCOME MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL UTILITY MATCHING METHODS MEAN CONSUMPTION MEAN DIFFERENCES MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOMES MEASUREMENT ERROR 0 HYPOTHESIS PERMANENT INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR AREAS POOR COUNTRIES POOR PEOPLE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY IMPACTS POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAMS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER REGIONAL GROWTH SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SELECTION BIAS TARGETING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER PAYMENTS WEALTH HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right, or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain. 2014-05-06T15:54:01Z 2014-05-06T15:54:01Z 2003-05 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/05/2360830/hidden-impact-ex-post-evaluation-anti-poverty-program http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18187 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3049 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	SOCIAL IMPACT SOCIAL ANALYSIS IMPACT EVALUATION ANTI-POVERTY POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS INCOME GENERATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE INCOME AGRICULTURE ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES AVERAGE RATE BANK LENDING BENCHMARK BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION CAPACITY BUILDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS COMPARISON GROUPS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION CUMULATIVE INCOME DATA COLLECTION DATA SET DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT DOWNWARD BIAS EMPIRICAL FINDINGS EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL RESULTS EMPLOYMENT EVALUATION DESIGN EVALUATION METHODS EXPECTED VALUE EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FORESTRY GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PROSPECTS GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPACT EVALUATION INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DECLINE INCOME GAINS INCOME IMPACTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SOURCES INCOMES INEQUALITY INSURANCE INTERVENTION LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES LOW INCOME MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL UTILITY MATCHING METHODS MEAN CONSUMPTION MEAN DIFFERENCES MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOMES MEASUREMENT ERROR 0 HYPOTHESIS PERMANENT INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR AREAS POOR COUNTRIES POOR PEOPLE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY IMPACTS POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAMS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER REGIONAL GROWTH SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SELECTION BIAS TARGETING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER PAYMENTS WEALTH HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE
spellingShingle	SOCIAL IMPACT SOCIAL ANALYSIS IMPACT EVALUATION ANTI-POVERTY POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS INCOME GENERATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE INCOME AGRICULTURE ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES AVERAGE RATE BANK LENDING BENCHMARK BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION CAPACITY BUILDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS COMPARISON GROUPS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION CUMULATIVE INCOME DATA COLLECTION DATA SET DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT DOWNWARD BIAS EMPIRICAL FINDINGS EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL RESULTS EMPLOYMENT EVALUATION DESIGN EVALUATION METHODS EXPECTED VALUE EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FORESTRY GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PROSPECTS GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPACT EVALUATION INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DECLINE INCOME GAINS INCOME IMPACTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SOURCES INCOMES INEQUALITY INSURANCE INTERVENTION LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES LOW INCOME MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL UTILITY MATCHING METHODS MEAN CONSUMPTION MEAN DIFFERENCES MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOMES MEASUREMENT ERROR 0 HYPOTHESIS PERMANENT INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR AREAS POOR COUNTRIES POOR PEOPLE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY IMPACTS POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAMS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER REGIONAL GROWTH SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SELECTION BIAS TARGETING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER PAYMENTS WEALTH HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE Chen, Shaohua Ravallion, Martin Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3049
description	By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right, or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Chen, Shaohua Ravallion, Martin
author_facet	Chen, Shaohua Ravallion, Martin
author_sort	Chen, Shaohua
title	Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
title_short	Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
title_full	Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
title_fullStr	Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
title_full_unstemmed	Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
title_sort	hidden impact? ex-post evaluation of an anti-poverty program
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/05/2360830/hidden-impact-ex-post-evaluation-anti-poverty-program http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18187
_version_	1764439115056545792

Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program

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