Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program

By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that ri...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Chen, Shaohua, Ravallion, Martin
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	SOCIAL IMPACT SOCIAL ANALYSIS IMPACT EVALUATION ANTI-POVERTY POLICY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS INCOME GENERATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE INCOME AGRICULTURE ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES AVERAGE RATE BANK LENDING BENCHMARK BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION CAPACITY BUILDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS COMPARISON GROUPS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION CUMULATIVE INCOME DATA COLLECTION DATA SET DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT DOWNWARD BIAS EMPIRICAL FINDINGS EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL RESULTS EMPLOYMENT EVALUATION DESIGN EVALUATION METHODS EXPECTED VALUE EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FORESTRY GROWTH MODEL GROWTH PROSPECTS GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HOUSEHOLD SIZE INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DECLINE INCOME GAINS INCOME IMPACTS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SOURCES INCOMES INEQUALITY INSURANCE INTERVENTION LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES LOW INCOME MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL UTILITY MATCHING METHODS MEAN CONSUMPTION MEAN DIFFERENCES MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOMES MEASUREMENT ERROR 0 HYPOTHESIS PERMANENT INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR AREAS POOR COUNTRIES POOR PEOPLE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY IMPACTS POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PROGRAM EFFECTS PROGRAMS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER REGIONAL GROWTH SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SELECTION BIAS TARGETING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER PAYMENTS WEALTH HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/05/2360830/hidden-impact-ex-post-evaluation-anti-poverty-program http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18187

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Summary:	By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right, or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain.

Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program

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