Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice
This paper uses quantitative methods to examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock management to the range of climates found across the African continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate whether farmers adopt livestock. They...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7870687/climate-change-adaptation-africa-microeconomic-analysis-livestock-choice http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7462 |
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okr-10986-74622021-04-23T14:02:33Z Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert AFRICAN SAVANNAS ANIMAL ANIMAL DISEASES ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMALS ANNUAL RAINFALL ASSESSMENT REPORT BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CARBON DIOXIDE CATTLE SHEEP CHEESE CHICKEN CHICKENS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATIC CHANGE DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DETERMINANTS DISTRICT LEVEL DROUGHT DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS ELECTRICITY EMISSIONS FARM FARMER FARMS FERTILIZATION FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GLOBAL WARMING GOAT GOATS GRASSLANDS GREENHOUSE GAS HORSES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IRRIGATION ISSUES LAND USE LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK FARMER LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK OWNERSHIP LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS MANURE MILK PASTURE PIGS POPULATION DENSITIES POPULATION DENSITY PRECIPITATION SATELLITE DATA SAVANNA SHEEP SOIL SOILS SPECIALIZATION SPECIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WOOL This paper uses quantitative methods to examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock management to the range of climates found across the African continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate whether farmers adopt livestock. They then use three econometric models to examine which species farmers choose: a primary choice multinomial logit, an optimal portfolio multinomial logit, and a demand system multivariate probit. Comparing the results of the three methods of estimating species selection reveals that the three approaches yield similar results. Using data from over 9,000 African livestock farmers in 10 countries, the analysis finds that farmers are more likely to choose to have livestock as temperatures increase and as precipitation decreases. Across all methods of estimating choice, livestock farmers in warmer locations are less likely to choose beef cattle and chickens and more likely to choose goats and sheep. As precipitation increases, cattle and sheep decrease but goats and chickens increase. The authors simulate the way farmers' choices might change with a set of uniform climate changes and a set of climate model scenarios. The uniform scenarios predict that warming and drying would increase livestock ownership but that increases in precipitation would decrease it. The climate scenarios predict a decrease in the probability of beef cattle and an increase in the probability of sheep and goats, and they predict that more heat-tolerant animals will dominate the future African landscape. 2012-06-07T20:19:16Z 2012-06-07T20:19:16Z 2007-07 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7870687/climate-change-adaptation-africa-microeconomic-analysis-livestock-choice http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7462 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4277 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AFRICAN SAVANNAS ANIMAL ANIMAL DISEASES ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMALS ANNUAL RAINFALL ASSESSMENT REPORT BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CARBON DIOXIDE CATTLE SHEEP CHEESE CHICKEN CHICKENS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATIC CHANGE DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DETERMINANTS DISTRICT LEVEL DROUGHT DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS ELECTRICITY EMISSIONS FARM FARMER FARMS FERTILIZATION FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GLOBAL WARMING GOAT GOATS GRASSLANDS GREENHOUSE GAS HORSES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IRRIGATION ISSUES LAND USE LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK FARMER LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK OWNERSHIP LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS MANURE MILK PASTURE PIGS POPULATION DENSITIES POPULATION DENSITY PRECIPITATION SATELLITE DATA SAVANNA SHEEP SOIL SOILS SPECIALIZATION SPECIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WOOL |
| spellingShingle |
AFRICAN SAVANNAS ANIMAL ANIMAL DISEASES ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMALS ANNUAL RAINFALL ASSESSMENT REPORT BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CARBON DIOXIDE CATTLE SHEEP CHEESE CHICKEN CHICKENS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATIC CHANGE DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DETERMINANTS DISTRICT LEVEL DROUGHT DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS ELECTRICITY EMISSIONS FARM FARMER FARMS FERTILIZATION FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GLOBAL WARMING GOAT GOATS GRASSLANDS GREENHOUSE GAS HORSES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IRRIGATION ISSUES LAND USE LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK FARMER LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK OWNERSHIP LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS MANURE MILK PASTURE PIGS POPULATION DENSITIES POPULATION DENSITY PRECIPITATION SATELLITE DATA SAVANNA SHEEP SOIL SOILS SPECIALIZATION SPECIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WOOL Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| geographic_facet |
Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4277 |
| description |
This paper uses quantitative methods to
examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock
management to the range of climates found across the African
continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate
whether farmers adopt livestock. They then use three
econometric models to examine which species farmers choose:
a primary choice multinomial logit, an optimal portfolio
multinomial logit, and a demand system multivariate probit.
Comparing the results of the three methods of estimating
species selection reveals that the three approaches yield
similar results. Using data from over 9,000 African
livestock farmers in 10 countries, the analysis finds that
farmers are more likely to choose to have livestock as
temperatures increase and as precipitation decreases. Across
all methods of estimating choice, livestock farmers in
warmer locations are less likely to choose beef cattle and
chickens and more likely to choose goats and sheep. As
precipitation increases, cattle and sheep decrease but goats
and chickens increase. The authors simulate the way
farmers' choices might change with a set of uniform
climate changes and a set of climate model scenarios. The
uniform scenarios predict that warming and drying would
increase livestock ownership but that increases in
precipitation would decrease it. The climate scenarios
predict a decrease in the probability of beef cattle and an
increase in the probability of sheep and goats, and they
predict that more heat-tolerant animals will dominate the
future African landscape. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_facet |
Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_sort |
Seo, Sungno Niggol |
| title |
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| title_short |
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| title_full |
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| title_fullStr |
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : A Microeconomic Analysis of Livestock Choice |
| title_sort |
climate change adaptation in africa : a microeconomic analysis of livestock choice |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7870687/climate-change-adaptation-africa-microeconomic-analysis-livestock-choice http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7462 |
| _version_ |
1764402086101909504 |