How Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market?
This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use...
Main Authors: | , , |
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/8973089/sensitive-latin-american-exports-chinese-competition-market http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6378 |
Summary: | This paper estimates the elasticity of
substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over
the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least
squares framework in order to identify the elasticity
parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity
estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and
Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing
forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect
exports to the United States. The analysis considers the
following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii)
elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under
a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the
elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under
the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a
20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese
exports to the United States by a fifth, although since
other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for
Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent.
Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's
exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The
removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in
Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent), but Latin
America would see its share of the U.S. market decline by
around 2 percent (2.5 percentage points). China's gains
would come mainly at the expense of other regions of the world. |
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