Climate Variability, Drought, and Drought Management in Tunisia's Agricultural Sector
Climate change and recurrent climate events are making water-scarce countries like Tunisia and its agricultural lands drier and more vulnerable to drought. These recurrent climate events are also known as teleconnections and include natural climati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/318211538415630621/Climate-Variability-Drought-and-Drought-Management-in-Tunisias-Agricultural-Sector http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30604 |
| Summary: | Climate change and recurrent climate
events are making water-scarce countries like Tunisia and
its agricultural lands drier and more vulnerable to drought.
These recurrent climate events are also known as
teleconnections and include natural climatic events such as
the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic
oscillation (NAO), and the Mediterranean oscillation (MO).
These climate phenomena contribute to droughts, which
negatively affect key rain-fed crops, suchas wheat and
barley, and livestock. As a result, farmers are becoming
more vulnerable as climate change and teleconnections make
temperatures rise and rainfall become more sporadic.
Agriculture is important for rural communities and the
overall Tunisian economy. Twenty percent of the population
is employed in agriculture, which accounts for 10 percent of
the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 10 to 12
percent of total exports, on average. Wheat and other
rainfedcrops are critical to food security and livestock
survival and are the crops most affected by climate
variability. Climate change’s adverse impacts on agriculture
are a contingent liability for the Tunisian economy,
including for the country’s GDP, trade balance, and balance
of payments. As agricultural and agro-industrial outputs
fall, food and fodder imports must rise to meet domestic
demand. Therefore, this report suggests additional action on
implementing integrated drought management (IDM) on top of
what the government is already doing. Food and agriculture
value chains are affected by climate events. This report
includes detailed analyses of two key value chains, namely
wheat and dairy. The analyses were done in representative
lagging regions, including Jendouba for the dairy value
chain and Siliana and Beja for the wheat value
chain.Currently, wheat and dairy are the main subsectors in
the lagging regions, and in the short term, strengthening
these subsectors will increase jobs, incomes, and food
security. This study finds that the El Niño Southern
oscillation (ENSO) was a less important contributor to the
2015–16 drought in Tunisia than other teleconnections. ENSO
drought impacts are more pronounced in other parts of the
world than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
region. This report also examines wheat and dairy
agriculture to determine how well they are adapting to
climate change and climate variability. Current adaptation
pathways to increase agricultural incomes and
productivityfocus on increasing tree crops, which generally
are more resilient to drought than field crops. Still,
improving water management is also an essential part of this
adaptation plan. |
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