New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-...

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Main Author:	Matta, Samer
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURE ARIMA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESSES CALIBRATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CC CD CHECKS COMMERCIAL BANKS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CUSTOM CUSTOMS DATA LIMITATIONS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDEX ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY ELECTRICITY EMPLOYEE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUIPMENT EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS GDP GNP GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRANGER CAUSALITY GROWTH RATE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INFLATION INSURANCE INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT DECISIONS LABOR FORCE SURVEYS LABOR MARKET LEADING INDICATORS M2 M3 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MANUFACTURING MARKETING MINIMIZATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NET EXPORTS OPEN ACCESS PERSONAL INCOME PRICE DYNAMICS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT PROPERTY TAX PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE RAW DATA REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL_ESTATE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES RELIABILITY REMITTANCES RESULT RESULTS RETAIL TRADE RETURN RETURNS SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TELECOM TIME SERIES TRADE SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIABLE INTEREST RATE WEB
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736811/new-coincident-leading-indicators-lebanese-economy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374

id	okr-10986-19374
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-193742021-04-23T14:03:51Z New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy Matta, Samer AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURE ARIMA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESSES CALIBRATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CC CD CHECKS COMMERCIAL BANKS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CUSTOM CUSTOMS DATA LIMITATIONS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDEX ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY ELECTRICITY EMPLOYEE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUIPMENT EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS GDP GNP GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRANGER CAUSALITY GROWTH RATE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INFLATION INSURANCE INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT DECISIONS LABOR FORCE SURVEYS LABOR MARKET LEADING INDICATORS M2 M3 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MANUFACTURING MARKETING MINIMIZATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NET EXPORTS OPEN ACCESS PERSONAL INCOME PRICE DYNAMICS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT PROPERTY TAX PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE RAW DATA REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL_ESTATE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES RELIABILITY REMITTANCES RESULT RESULTS RETAIL TRADE RETURN RETURNS SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TELECOM TIME SERIES TRADE SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIABLE INTEREST RATE WEB Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available. 2014-08-15T18:18:54Z 2014-08-15T18:18:54Z 2014-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736811/new-coincident-leading-indicators-lebanese-economy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa Lebanon
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURE ARIMA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESSES CALIBRATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CC CD CHECKS COMMERCIAL BANKS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CUSTOM CUSTOMS DATA LIMITATIONS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDEX ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY ELECTRICITY EMPLOYEE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUIPMENT EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS GDP GNP GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRANGER CAUSALITY GROWTH RATE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INFLATION INSURANCE INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT DECISIONS LABOR FORCE SURVEYS LABOR MARKET LEADING INDICATORS M2 M3 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MANUFACTURING MARKETING MINIMIZATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NET EXPORTS OPEN ACCESS PERSONAL INCOME PRICE DYNAMICS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT PROPERTY TAX PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE RAW DATA REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL_ESTATE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES RELIABILITY REMITTANCES RESULT RESULTS RETAIL TRADE RETURN RETURNS SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TELECOM TIME SERIES TRADE SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIABLE INTEREST RATE WEB
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURE ARIMA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESSES CALIBRATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CC CD CHECKS COMMERCIAL BANKS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CUSTOM CUSTOMS DATA LIMITATIONS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDEX ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY ELECTRICITY EMPLOYEE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUIPMENT EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS GDP GNP GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRANGER CAUSALITY GROWTH RATE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INFLATION INSURANCE INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT DECISIONS LABOR FORCE SURVEYS LABOR MARKET LEADING INDICATORS M2 M3 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MANUFACTURING MARKETING MINIMIZATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NET EXPORTS OPEN ACCESS PERSONAL INCOME PRICE DYNAMICS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT PROPERTY TAX PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE RAW DATA REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL_ESTATE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES RELIABILITY REMITTANCES RESULT RESULTS RETAIL TRADE RETURN RETURNS SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TELECOM TIME SERIES TRADE SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIABLE INTEREST RATE WEB Matta, Samer New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Lebanon
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950
description	Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Matta, Samer
author_facet	Matta, Samer
author_sort	Matta, Samer
title	New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
title_short	New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
title_full	New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
title_fullStr	New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
title_full_unstemmed	New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
title_sort	new coincident and leading indicators for the lebanese economy
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736811/new-coincident-leading-indicators-lebanese-economy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374
_version_	1764443752011661312

New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

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