Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer

The ability to model and perform decision making is an essential feature of many real-world applications including the forecasting of commodity prices. In this study, a forecasting model based on a relatively new Swarm Intelligence (SI) behaviour, namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), is developed for s...

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Main Authors:	Zuriani, Mustaffa, Yuhanis, Yusof
Format:	Conference or Workshop Item
Language:	English
Published:	2015
Subjects:	QA76 Computer software
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/1/fskkp-2015-zuriani-time%20series%20forecasting.pdf

id	ump-8968
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ump-89682018-02-26T07:58:50Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/ Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer Zuriani, Mustaffa Yuhanis, Yusof QA76 Computer software The ability to model and perform decision making is an essential feature of many real-world applications including the forecasting of commodity prices. In this study, a forecasting model based on a relatively new Swarm Intelligence (SI) behaviour, namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), is developed for short term time series forecasting. The model is built upon data obtained from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and gasoline price. Performance of the GWO model is compared against two other models which are developed based on Evolutionary Computation (EC) algorithms, namely the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and Differential Evolution (DE). Results showed that the GWO model outperformed DE in both crude oil and gasoline price forecasting. Furthermore, the proposed GWO produces a better forecast for gasoline price as compared to the ABC model,, as well as being at par in crude oil. Such an achievement indicates that GWO may become a competitor in the domain of time series forecasting and would be useful for investors in planning their investment and projecting their profit. 2015 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/1/fskkp-2015-zuriani-time%20series%20forecasting.pdf Zuriani, Mustaffa and Yuhanis, Yusof (2015) Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer. In: Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientist (IMECS 2015), 18-20 March 2015 , Hong Kong. pp. 25-30.. http://www.iaeng.org/publication/IMECS2015/IMECS2015_pp25-30.pdf
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building	UMP Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
topic	QA76 Computer software
spellingShingle	QA76 Computer software Zuriani, Mustaffa Yuhanis, Yusof Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
description	The ability to model and perform decision making is an essential feature of many real-world applications including the forecasting of commodity prices. In this study, a forecasting model based on a relatively new Swarm Intelligence (SI) behaviour, namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), is developed for short term time series forecasting. The model is built upon data obtained from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and gasoline price. Performance of the GWO model is compared against two other models which are developed based on Evolutionary Computation (EC) algorithms, namely the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and Differential Evolution (DE). Results showed that the GWO model outperformed DE in both crude oil and gasoline price forecasting. Furthermore, the proposed GWO produces a better forecast for gasoline price as compared to the ABC model,, as well as being at par in crude oil. Such an achievement indicates that GWO may become a competitor in the domain of time series forecasting and would be useful for investors in planning their investment and projecting their profit.
format	Conference or Workshop Item
author	Zuriani, Mustaffa Yuhanis, Yusof
author_facet	Zuriani, Mustaffa Yuhanis, Yusof
author_sort	Zuriani, Mustaffa
title	Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
title_short	Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
title_full	Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
title_fullStr	Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
title_full_unstemmed	Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer
title_sort	time series forecasting of energy commodity using grey wolf optimizer
publishDate	2015
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/8968/1/fskkp-2015-zuriani-time%20series%20forecasting.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T22:07:01Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T22:07:01Z
_version_	1777414775775428608

Time Series Forecasting of Energy Commodity using Grey Wolf Optimizer

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