An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables

Analyzing and modeling efforts on production throughput are getting more complex due to random variables in todays dynamic production systems. The production line faces the changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, demand, and scraps. Bayesian approach is applied to ta...

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Main Author:	Azizi, Amir
Format:	Conference or Workshop Item
Language:	English
Published:	2013
Subjects:	TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/1/fkp-2013-Amir-Integrated_Approach_BasedMUCET.pdf

id	ump-6050
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ump-60502018-02-23T03:10:45Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/ An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables Azizi, Amir TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery Analyzing and modeling efforts on production throughput are getting more complex due to random variables in todays dynamic production systems. The production line faces the changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, demand, and scraps. Bayesian approach is applied to tackle the problem. Later, it is developed by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach. The integrated BayesianSARIMA model consists of multiple random parameters with multiple random variables. A statistical index, Rsquared, is used to measure the performance of the developed model. A real case study on tile and ceramic production is considered. The Bayesian model is validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results of the analyses present that the Bayesian-SARIMA produces higher R-squared value indicated by 98.8% compared with previous studies on Bayesian and ARIMA approaches individually. 2013 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/1/fkp-2013-Amir-Integrated_Approach_BasedMUCET.pdf Azizi, Amir (2013) An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables. In: Proceedings of Malaysian Technical Universities Conference on Engineering & Technology (MUCET 2013), 3-4 December 2013 , Kuantan, Pahang. pp. 1-12..
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building	UMP Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
topic	TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
spellingShingle	TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery Azizi, Amir An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
description	Analyzing and modeling efforts on production throughput are getting more complex due to random variables in todays dynamic production systems. The production line faces the changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, demand, and scraps. Bayesian approach is applied to tackle the problem. Later, it is developed by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach. The integrated BayesianSARIMA model consists of multiple random parameters with multiple random variables. A statistical index, Rsquared, is used to measure the performance of the developed model. A real case study on tile and ceramic production is considered. The Bayesian model is validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results of the analyses present that the Bayesian-SARIMA produces higher R-squared value indicated by 98.8% compared with previous studies on Bayesian and ARIMA approaches individually.
format	Conference or Workshop Item
author	Azizi, Amir
author_facet	Azizi, Amir
author_sort	Azizi, Amir
title	An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
title_short	An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
title_full	An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
title_fullStr	An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
title_full_unstemmed	An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables
title_sort	integrated approach based on sarima and bayesian to estimate production throughput under five random variables
publishDate	2013
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6050/1/fkp-2013-Amir-Integrated_Approach_BasedMUCET.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T22:01:31Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T22:01:31Z
_version_	1777414430426923008

An Integrated Approach Based on SARIMA and Bayesian to Estimate Production Throughput under Five Random Variables

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