Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia

Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall is essential since the results can often facilitate civil engineers and planners to estimate the ability of building structures to survive under the utmost extreme conditions. Data comprising of annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme rainfall in Alor Setar we...

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Main Authors:	Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2012
Online Access:	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/1/09%2520Annazirin.pdf

id	ukm-5576
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ukm-55762016-12-14T06:38:51Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/ Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin, Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall is essential since the results can often facilitate civil engineers and planners to estimate the ability of building structures to survive under the utmost extreme conditions. Data comprising of annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme rainfall in Alor Setar were fitted to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using method of maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The weakness of ML method in handling small sample is hoped to be tackled by means of Bayesian MCMC simulations in this study. In order to obtain the posterior densities, non-informative and independent priors were employed. Performances of parameter estimations were verified by conducting several goodness-of-fit tests. The results showed that Bayesian MCMC method was slightly better than ML method in estimating GEV parameters. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2012-11 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/1/09%2520Annazirin.pdf Annazirin Eli, and Mardhiyyah Shaffie, and Wan Zawiah Wan Zin, (2012) Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana, 41 (11). pp. 1403-1410. ISSN 0126-6039 http://www.ukm.my/jsm/
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia
building	UKM Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
description	Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall is essential since the results can often facilitate civil engineers and planners to estimate the ability of building structures to survive under the utmost extreme conditions. Data comprising of annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme rainfall in Alor Setar were fitted to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using method of maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The weakness of ML method in handling small sample is hoped to be tackled by means of Bayesian MCMC simulations in this study. In order to obtain the posterior densities, non-informative and independent priors were employed. Performances of parameter estimations were verified by conducting several goodness-of-fit tests. The results showed that Bayesian MCMC method was slightly better than ML method in estimating GEV parameters.
format	Article
author	Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin,
spellingShingle	Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin, Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
author_facet	Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin,
author_sort	Annazirin Eli,
title	Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
title_short	Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
title_full	Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
title_fullStr	Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
title_sort	preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of alor setar, kedah, malaysia
publisher	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate	2012
url	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/5576/1/09%2520Annazirin.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T19:44:30Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T19:44:30Z
_version_	1777405809333895168

Preliminary study on bayesian extreme rainfall analysis: a case study of Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia

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