Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability

Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability

Early Warning System (EWS) is a system that tries to predict the probability of crises using environmental factors. This study seeks to develop an EWS for the probability of systemic banking crises in East Asian countries by using a logit model taking into account a wide range of political and eco...

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Main Authors: Tamadonejad, Alireza, Mariani Abdul-Majid, Aisyah Abdul-Rahman, Mansor Jusoh, Razieh Tabandeh
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2016
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/1/jeko_50%282%29-3.pdf
id ukm-10777
recordtype eprints
spelling ukm-107772017-10-10T09:37:21Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/ Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability Tamadonejad, Alireza Mariani Abdul-Majid, Aisyah Abdul-Rahman, Mansor Jusoh, Razieh Tabandeh, Early Warning System (EWS) is a system that tries to predict the probability of crises using environmental factors. This study seeks to develop an EWS for the probability of systemic banking crises in East Asian countries by using a logit model taking into account a wide range of political and economic factors. Results reveal that short-term debt and exchange rate depreciation may trigger speculative attacks during political instability, economic slowdown, and inefficient regulatory environments. Policymakers and regulators may be able to prevent crises by stabilizing political and economic conditions. Furthermore, results indicate that government instability, corruption, high short-term debt, unstable monetary and fiscal policies do not only reduce investors’ confidence but also prevent effective crisis prevention strategies. Therefore, by adopting the EWS the government would be able to monitor environmental changes causing crises. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2016 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/1/jeko_50%282%29-3.pdf Tamadonejad, Alireza and Mariani Abdul-Majid, and Aisyah Abdul-Rahman, and Mansor Jusoh, and Razieh Tabandeh, (2016) Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 50 (2). pp. 31-38. ISSN 0127-1962 http://www.ukm.my/fep/jem/content/2016-2.html
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Local University
institution Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia
building UKM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
language English
description Early Warning System (EWS) is a system that tries to predict the probability of crises using environmental factors. This study seeks to develop an EWS for the probability of systemic banking crises in East Asian countries by using a logit model taking into account a wide range of political and economic factors. Results reveal that short-term debt and exchange rate depreciation may trigger speculative attacks during political instability, economic slowdown, and inefficient regulatory environments. Policymakers and regulators may be able to prevent crises by stabilizing political and economic conditions. Furthermore, results indicate that government instability, corruption, high short-term debt, unstable monetary and fiscal policies do not only reduce investors’ confidence but also prevent effective crisis prevention strategies. Therefore, by adopting the EWS the government would be able to monitor environmental changes causing crises.
format Article
author Tamadonejad, Alireza
Mariani Abdul-Majid,
Aisyah Abdul-Rahman,
Mansor Jusoh,
Razieh Tabandeh,
spellingShingle Tamadonejad, Alireza
Mariani Abdul-Majid,
Aisyah Abdul-Rahman,
Mansor Jusoh,
Razieh Tabandeh,
Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
author_facet Tamadonejad, Alireza
Mariani Abdul-Majid,
Aisyah Abdul-Rahman,
Mansor Jusoh,
Razieh Tabandeh,
author_sort Tamadonejad, Alireza
title Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
title_short Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
title_full Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
title_fullStr Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
title_full_unstemmed Early Warning Systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
title_sort early warning systems for banking crises: political and economic stability
publisher Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2016
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/10777/1/jeko_50%282%29-3.pdf
first_indexed 2023-09-18T19:58:25Z
last_indexed 2023-09-18T19:58:25Z
_version_ 1777406684904292352

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