Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis

Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic a...

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Main Authors: Bell, Clive, Bruhns, Ramona, Gersbach, Hans
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:
World Development Report 2007
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9088
id okr-10986-9088
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-90882021-04-23T14:02:44Z Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis Bell, Clive Bruhns, Ramona Gersbach, Hans World Development Report 2007 The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect. 2012-06-26T15:37:56Z 2012-06-26T15:37:56Z 2006-10 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9088 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Africa
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic World Development Report 2007
spellingShingle World Development Report 2007
Bell, Clive
Bruhns, Ramona
Gersbach, Hans
Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
geographic_facet Africa
description The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.
author Bell, Clive
Bruhns, Ramona
Gersbach, Hans
author_facet Bell, Clive
Bruhns, Ramona
Gersbach, Hans
author_sort Bell, Clive
title Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
title_short Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
title_full Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
title_fullStr Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis
title_sort economic growth, education, and aids in kenya : a long-run analysis
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2012
url http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9088
_version_ 1764408419923525632

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