Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment ou...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Bayraktar, Nihal, Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ACCESS TO SAFE WATER ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENT POLICIES AGGREGATE DEMAND ALLOCATION BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BUDGET BALANCE BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET FRAMEWORK CALIBRATION PROCESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CENTRAL BANK COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONALITY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE CONTINGENT LIABILITIES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEBT SERVICING DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DISEASES DISPOSABLE INCOME DISTRIBUTIONAL ISSUES DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC GOOD DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC TAX DOMESTIC TAXATION ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC GROWTH EDUCATION EDUCATION SYSTEM EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY ELECTRICITY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPENDITURE DATA EXPENDITURES EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCING FISCAL ACCOUNTS FIXED CAPITAL FOREIGN BORROWING FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN DEBT FORMAL ANALYSIS GDP GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH GROWTH RATE HEALTH HEALTH SERVICES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HUMAN LIFE IMPACT ON HEALTH INCOME INFANT INFANT MORTALITY INFANT MORTALITY RATE INFANT MORTALITY RATES INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVENTORY INVESTMENT INVESTMENT FLOWS INVESTMENT NEEDS INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR MARKET LABOR SUPPLY LIFE EXPECTANCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC MODEL MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MACROECONOMICS MAINTENANCE MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORKS MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MORAL HAZARD NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES NET EXPORTS NET FOREIGN ASSETS NET PRESENT VALUE PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY DECISIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION DENSITY POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PRIVATE SECTOR PROGRESS PROVISION OF HEALTH SERVICES PUBLIC PUBLIC ASSETS PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EDUCATION PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAMS PUBLIC INVESTMENTS PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING PUBLIC UTILITIES RATE OF GROWTH RATE OF INVESTMENT RATE OF RETURN REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INCOME ROADS SAFE DRINKING WATER SAVINGS SIDE EFFECTS SOCIAL INDICATORS STATE UNIVERSITY TAX TAX EFFORT TAX PAYMENTS TAX POLICY TAX RATE TAX RATES TAX REFORM TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TAXATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL SPENDING UNEMPLOYMENT USER CHARGES USER FEES WAGES
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/06/6889027/linking-public-investment-programs-spahd-macro-models-methodology-application-aid-requirements http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8386

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Summary:	The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

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