Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth

Key economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and c...

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Main Authors:	Bogetic, Zeljko, Espina, Carlos, Noer, John
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	BIDDING BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL STOCK CHOCOLATE COCA COCOA COCOA BEANS COCOA PRICE COCOA PRICES COFFEE COFFEE BEANS COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COFFEE PRODUCTION COFFEE YIELDS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDICES COTTON COTTON PRICES CROP CURRENCY CYCLICAL SWINGS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC STATISTICS EXCHANGE MARKETS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES FAO FORECASTS FUTURES GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOMES INFLATION LABOR FORCE LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARKET POWER MARKET SHARE MARKETING OUTPUT OUTPUT PER CAPITA OVERVALUATION POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE EFFECTS PRICE CHANGES PRICE LEVEL PRICE QUOTATIONS PRICE SERIES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCE PRODUCTION INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND RA RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT SPOT PRICE SPOT PRICES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TROUGH VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YIELDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8789615/cote-divoire-volatility-shocks-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7625

id	okr-10986-7625
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-76252021-04-23T14:02:34Z Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth Bogetic, Zeljko Espina, Carlos Noer, John BIDDING BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL STOCK CHOCOLATE COCA COCOA COCOA BEANS COCOA PRICE COCOA PRICES COFFEE COFFEE BEANS COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COFFEE PRODUCTION COFFEE YIELDS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDICES COTTON COTTON PRICES CROP CURRENCY CYCLICAL SWINGS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC STATISTICS EXCHANGE MARKETS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES FAO FORECASTS FUTURES GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOMES INFLATION LABOR FORCE LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARKET POWER MARKET SHARE MARKETING OUTPUT OUTPUT PER CAPITA OVERVALUATION POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE EFFECTS PRICE CHANGES PRICE LEVEL PRICE QUOTATIONS PRICE SERIES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCE PRODUCTION INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND RA RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT SPOT PRICE SPOT PRICES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TROUGH VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YIELDS Key economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production and output. These patterns have become more pronounced since the 1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize these cycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, and analyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast. Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Cote d'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions, one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related to exchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grew steadily, and then fell in real terms. The country's growth showed a similar pattern. An econometric model indicates that the relationship between cocoa price and quantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidence of Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on world cocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth rates and trade indicators, and are important sources of volatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade and real exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growth and productivity. Third, a forecast of per-worker output based on these variables predicts continued declines in GDP per worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future. This dismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapid improvement on political, security, and economic management to reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline. 2012-06-11T14:10:46Z 2012-06-11T14:10:46Z 2007-11 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8789615/cote-divoire-volatility-shocks-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7625 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4415 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Cote d'Ivoire
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	BIDDING BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL STOCK CHOCOLATE COCA COCOA COCOA BEANS COCOA PRICE COCOA PRICES COFFEE COFFEE BEANS COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COFFEE PRODUCTION COFFEE YIELDS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDICES COTTON COTTON PRICES CROP CURRENCY CYCLICAL SWINGS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC STATISTICS EXCHANGE MARKETS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES FAO FORECASTS FUTURES GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOMES INFLATION LABOR FORCE LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARKET POWER MARKET SHARE MARKETING OUTPUT OUTPUT PER CAPITA OVERVALUATION POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE EFFECTS PRICE CHANGES PRICE LEVEL PRICE QUOTATIONS PRICE SERIES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCE PRODUCTION INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND RA RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT SPOT PRICE SPOT PRICES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TROUGH VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YIELDS
spellingShingle	BIDDING BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL STOCK CHOCOLATE COCA COCOA COCOA BEANS COCOA PRICE COCOA PRICES COFFEE COFFEE BEANS COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COFFEE PRODUCTION COFFEE YIELDS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDICES COTTON COTTON PRICES CROP CURRENCY CYCLICAL SWINGS DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC STATISTICS EXCHANGE MARKETS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES FAO FORECASTS FUTURES GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOMES INFLATION LABOR FORCE LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARKET POWER MARKET SHARE MARKETING OUTPUT OUTPUT PER CAPITA OVERVALUATION POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE EFFECTS PRICE CHANGES PRICE LEVEL PRICE QUOTATIONS PRICE SERIES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCE PRODUCTION INCREASES PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND RA RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT SPOT PRICE SPOT PRICES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TROUGH VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YIELDS Bogetic, Zeljko Espina, Carlos Noer, John Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
geographic_facet	Africa Cote d'Ivoire
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4415
description	Key economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production and output. These patterns have become more pronounced since the 1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize these cycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, and analyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast. Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Cote d'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions, one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related to exchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grew steadily, and then fell in real terms. The country's growth showed a similar pattern. An econometric model indicates that the relationship between cocoa price and quantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidence of Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on world cocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth rates and trade indicators, and are important sources of volatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade and real exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growth and productivity. Third, a forecast of per-worker output based on these variables predicts continued declines in GDP per worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future. This dismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapid improvement on political, security, and economic management to reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Bogetic, Zeljko Espina, Carlos Noer, John
author_facet	Bogetic, Zeljko Espina, Carlos Noer, John
author_sort	Bogetic, Zeljko
title	Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
title_short	Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
title_full	Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
title_fullStr	Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
title_full_unstemmed	Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth
title_sort	cote d'ivoire : volatility, shocks and growth
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8789615/cote-divoire-volatility-shocks-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7625
_version_	1764402593018150912

Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth

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