Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change

The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland...

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Main Author:	Lotsch, Alexander
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION OF LAND ALTITUDE ARID ZONES ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BIOSPHERE CARBON CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONTROLS CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE SYSTEMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC ZONES CLIMATOLOGY CONGO BASIN CROP CROP YIELD CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPPING SYSTEMS CROPS CULTIVATION DATES DEGRADATION DEGRADATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRIBUTION OF CROPLAND ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS FARMERS FARMING FERTILIZATION FLOODS FOOD POLICY FOOD SECURITY FOREST GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GEOSPHERE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON HORN OF AFRICA IFPRI INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAKES LAND COVER LAND MANAGEMENT LAND PRODUCTIVITY LAND USE LAND USE PATTERNS LAND USES LOW TEMPERATURES MAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN PLANT GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL INCOME RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RURAL LIVELIHOODS RURAL POVERTY RURAL SECTOR SAFETY NETS SAHEL SEA SEA ICE SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL FERTILITY SOILS SPRING STORMS SULFATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TERRACING VEGETATION WORLD FOOD SUPPLY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7998467/sensitivity-cropping-patterns-africa-transient-climate-change http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7480

id	okr-10986-7480
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-74802021-04-23T14:02:33Z Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change Lotsch, Alexander AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION OF LAND ALTITUDE ARID ZONES ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BIOSPHERE CARBON CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONTROLS CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE SYSTEMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC ZONES CLIMATOLOGY CONGO BASIN CROP CROP YIELD CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPPING SYSTEMS CROPS CULTIVATION DATES DEGRADATION DEGRADATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRIBUTION OF CROPLAND ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS FARMERS FARMING FERTILIZATION FLOODS FOOD POLICY FOOD SECURITY FOREST GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GEOSPHERE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON HORN OF AFRICA IFPRI INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAKES LAND COVER LAND MANAGEMENT LAND PRODUCTIVITY LAND USE LAND USE PATTERNS LAND USES LOW TEMPERATURES MAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN PLANT GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL INCOME RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RURAL LIVELIHOODS RURAL POVERTY RURAL SECTOR SAFETY NETS SAHEL SEA SEA ICE SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL FERTILITY SOILS SPRING STORMS SULFATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TERRACING VEGETATION WORLD FOOD SUPPLY The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems. 2012-06-07T21:53:09Z 2012-06-07T21:53:09Z 2007-07 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7998467/sensitivity-cropping-patterns-africa-transient-climate-change http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7480 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4289 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION OF LAND ALTITUDE ARID ZONES ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BIOSPHERE CARBON CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONTROLS CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE SYSTEMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC ZONES CLIMATOLOGY CONGO BASIN CROP CROP YIELD CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPPING SYSTEMS CROPS CULTIVATION DATES DEGRADATION DEGRADATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRIBUTION OF CROPLAND ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS FARMERS FARMING FERTILIZATION FLOODS FOOD POLICY FOOD SECURITY FOREST GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GEOSPHERE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON HORN OF AFRICA IFPRI INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAKES LAND COVER LAND MANAGEMENT LAND PRODUCTIVITY LAND USE LAND USE PATTERNS LAND USES LOW TEMPERATURES MAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN PLANT GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL INCOME RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RURAL LIVELIHOODS RURAL POVERTY RURAL SECTOR SAFETY NETS SAHEL SEA SEA ICE SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL FERTILITY SOILS SPRING STORMS SULFATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TERRACING VEGETATION WORLD FOOD SUPPLY
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION OF LAND ALTITUDE ARID ZONES ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BIOSPHERE CARBON CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONTROLS CLIMATE DYNAMICS CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE SYSTEMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC ZONES CLIMATOLOGY CONGO BASIN CROP CROP YIELD CROPLAND CROPLANDS CROPPING CROPPING PATTERNS CROPPING SYSTEMS CROPS CULTIVATION DATES DEGRADATION DEGRADATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRIBUTION OF CROPLAND ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECOSYSTEMS EMISSIONS FARMERS FARMING FERTILIZATION FLOODS FOOD POLICY FOOD SECURITY FOREST GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GEOSPHERE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROWING SEASON HORN OF AFRICA IFPRI INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAKES LAND COVER LAND MANAGEMENT LAND PRODUCTIVITY LAND USE LAND USE PATTERNS LAND USES LOW TEMPERATURES MAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN PLANT GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL INCOME RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RURAL LIVELIHOODS RURAL POVERTY RURAL SECTOR SAFETY NETS SAHEL SEA SEA ICE SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL FERTILITY SOILS SPRING STORMS SULFATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TERRACING VEGETATION WORLD FOOD SUPPLY Lotsch, Alexander Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
geographic_facet	Africa
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4289
description	The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Lotsch, Alexander
author_facet	Lotsch, Alexander
author_sort	Lotsch, Alexander
title	Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
title_short	Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
title_full	Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
title_fullStr	Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed	Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change
title_sort	sensitivity of cropping patterns in africa to transient climate change
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7998467/sensitivity-cropping-patterns-africa-transient-climate-change http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7480
_version_	1764402140737961984

Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change

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