The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis
This paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneat...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848150/impact-climate-change-livestock-management-africa-structural-ricardian-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7463 |
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okr-10986-74632021-04-23T14:02:33Z The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ANIMAL ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMAL PRODUCTS ANIMAL SPECIES ANIMALS BARNS BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CATTLE CATTLE OWNERS CATTLE POPULATION CHEESE CHICKENS CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL LIVESTOCK FARMS DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DISTRICT LEVEL DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS FARM FARMER FARMING FARMS FEED FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GOATS GRASSLAND GRASSLANDS GRAZING HORSES INCOME FROM LIVESTOCK ISSUES LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK DISEASES LIVESTOCK FARM LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK FARMS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LIVESTOCK RESEARCH LIVESTOCK SPECIES MANURE MEAT MILK NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS PASTORALISTS PASTURE PIGS RAINFALL SAHEL SAVANNA SHEEP TRYPANOSOMIASIS WOOL This paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of species, the net income per animal, and the number of animals are all highly dependent on climate. As climate warms, net income across all animals will fall, especially across beef cattle. The fall in net income causes African farmers to reduce the number of animals on their farms. The fall in relative revenues also causes them to shift away from beef cattle and toward sheep and goats. All farmers will lose income but the most vulnerable farms are large African farms that currently specialize in beef cattle. Small livestock and large livestock farms respond to climates differently. Small farms are diversified, relying on dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and chickens. Large farms specialize in dairy and beef cattle. Estimating a separate multinomial logit selection model for small and large farms reveals that the two types of farm choose species differently and specifically have different climate response functions. The regressions of the number of animals also reveal that large farms are more responsive to climate. The results indicate that warming will be harmful to commercial livestock owners, especially cattle owners. Owners of commercial livestock farms have few alternatives either in crops or other animal species. In contrast, small livestock farms are better able to adapt to warming or precipitation increases by switching to heat tolerant animals or crops. Livestock operations will be a safety valve for small farmers if warming or drought causes their crops to fail. 2012-06-07T20:23:16Z 2012-06-07T20:23:16Z 2007-07 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848150/impact-climate-change-livestock-management-africa-structural-ricardian-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7463 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4279 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ANIMAL ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMAL PRODUCTS ANIMAL SPECIES ANIMALS BARNS BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CATTLE CATTLE OWNERS CATTLE POPULATION CHEESE CHICKENS CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL LIVESTOCK FARMS DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DISTRICT LEVEL DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS FARM FARMER FARMING FARMS FEED FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GOATS GRASSLAND GRASSLANDS GRAZING HORSES INCOME FROM LIVESTOCK ISSUES LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK DISEASES LIVESTOCK FARM LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK FARMS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LIVESTOCK RESEARCH LIVESTOCK SPECIES MANURE MEAT MILK NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS PASTORALISTS PASTURE PIGS RAINFALL SAHEL SAVANNA SHEEP TRYPANOSOMIASIS WOOL |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ANIMAL ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ANIMAL PRODUCTS ANIMAL SPECIES ANIMALS BARNS BEEF BEEF CATTLE BEES BREEDING BULLS BUTTER CAMELS CATTLE CATTLE OWNERS CATTLE POPULATION CHEESE CHICKENS CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COMMERCIAL LIVESTOCK FARMS DAIRY DAIRY CATTLE DISTRICT LEVEL DUCKS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS EGGS FARM FARMER FARMING FARMS FEED FORAGE FOREST FORESTS FOWL GOATS GRASSLAND GRASSLANDS GRAZING HORSES INCOME FROM LIVESTOCK ISSUES LEATHER LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK DISEASES LIVESTOCK FARM LIVESTOCK FARMERS LIVESTOCK FARMS LIVESTOCK INCOME LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS LIVESTOCK OWNERS LIVESTOCK PRODUCT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LIVESTOCK RESEARCH LIVESTOCK SPECIES MANURE MEAT MILK NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS PASTORALISTS PASTURE PIGS RAINFALL SAHEL SAVANNA SHEEP TRYPANOSOMIASIS WOOL Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| geographic_facet |
Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4279 |
| description |
This paper develops the structural
Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural
performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the
method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is
intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results
in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in
response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock
farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of
species, the net income per animal, and the number of
animals are all highly dependent on climate. As climate
warms, net income across all animals will fall, especially
across beef cattle. The fall in net income causes African
farmers to reduce the number of animals on their farms. The
fall in relative revenues also causes them to shift away
from beef cattle and toward sheep and goats. All farmers
will lose income but the most vulnerable farms are large
African farms that currently specialize in beef cattle.
Small livestock and large livestock farms respond to
climates differently. Small farms are diversified, relying
on dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and chickens. Large farms
specialize in dairy and beef cattle. Estimating a separate
multinomial logit selection model for small and large farms
reveals that the two types of farm choose species
differently and specifically have different climate response
functions. The regressions of the number of animals also
reveal that large farms are more responsive to climate. The
results indicate that warming will be harmful to commercial
livestock owners, especially cattle owners. Owners of
commercial livestock farms have few alternatives either in
crops or other animal species. In contrast, small livestock
farms are better able to adapt to warming or precipitation
increases by switching to heat tolerant animals or crops.
Livestock operations will be a safety valve for small
farmers if warming or drought causes their crops to fail. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_facet |
Seo, Sungno Niggol Mendelsohn, Robert |
| author_sort |
Seo, Sungno Niggol |
| title |
The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| title_short |
The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| title_full |
The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis |
| title_sort |
impact of climate change on livestock management in africa : a structural ricardian analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7848150/impact-climate-change-livestock-management-africa-structural-ricardian-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7463 |
| _version_ |
1764402089759342592 |