Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach
Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (EC...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/05/7558207/evaluating-trade-effect-developing-regional-trade-agreements-semi-parametric-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7090 |
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okr-10986-70902021-04-23T14:02:33Z Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach Coulibaly, Souleymane BILATERAL TRADE CENTRAL AMERICAN COMMON MARKET COMPETITIVENESS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATE OF ENTRY INTO FORCE DEFLATION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC COMMUNITY EXPORT PRICE EXPORT QUANTITIES EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTERS EXPORTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS GDP GDP DEFLATOR GLOBAL ECONOMY GRAVITY EQUATION GRAVITY MODEL GRAVITY MODELS GRAVITY VARIABLES IMPORTS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTRAREGIONAL TRADE MEMBER COUNTRIES MEMBER COUNTRY NET TRADE CREATION POLICY RESEARCH PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL ARRANGEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRICE INDEX REAL EXCHANGE RATE REGIONAL AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS REGIONAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS REGIONALISM RULES OF ORIGIN SOUTH ASIAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BLOCS TRADE CREATING TRADE CREATION TRADE DIVERSION TRADE EFFECT TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE IMPACT TRADE MORE TRADE ORIENTATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADING PARTNERS WORLD TRADE WTO Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period. 2012-06-05T14:19:02Z 2012-06-05T14:19:02Z 2007-05 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/05/7558207/evaluating-trade-effect-developing-regional-trade-agreements-semi-parametric-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7090 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4220 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Latin America & Caribbean South Asia East Asia and Pacific Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BILATERAL TRADE CENTRAL AMERICAN COMMON MARKET COMPETITIVENESS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATE OF ENTRY INTO FORCE DEFLATION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC COMMUNITY EXPORT PRICE EXPORT QUANTITIES EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTERS EXPORTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS GDP GDP DEFLATOR GLOBAL ECONOMY GRAVITY EQUATION GRAVITY MODEL GRAVITY MODELS GRAVITY VARIABLES IMPORTS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTRAREGIONAL TRADE MEMBER COUNTRIES MEMBER COUNTRY NET TRADE CREATION POLICY RESEARCH PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL ARRANGEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRICE INDEX REAL EXCHANGE RATE REGIONAL AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS REGIONAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS REGIONALISM RULES OF ORIGIN SOUTH ASIAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BLOCS TRADE CREATING TRADE CREATION TRADE DIVERSION TRADE EFFECT TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE IMPACT TRADE MORE TRADE ORIENTATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADING PARTNERS WORLD TRADE WTO |
| spellingShingle |
BILATERAL TRADE CENTRAL AMERICAN COMMON MARKET COMPETITIVENESS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATE OF ENTRY INTO FORCE DEFLATION ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC COMMUNITY EXPORT PRICE EXPORT QUANTITIES EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTERS EXPORTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS GDP GDP DEFLATOR GLOBAL ECONOMY GRAVITY EQUATION GRAVITY MODEL GRAVITY MODELS GRAVITY VARIABLES IMPORTS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTRAREGIONAL TRADE MEMBER COUNTRIES MEMBER COUNTRY NET TRADE CREATION POLICY RESEARCH PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL ARRANGEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT PREFERENTIAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRICE INDEX REAL EXCHANGE RATE REGIONAL AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS REGIONAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS REGIONALISM RULES OF ORIGIN SOUTH ASIAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BLOCS TRADE CREATING TRADE CREATION TRADE DIVERSION TRADE EFFECT TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE IMPACT TRADE MORE TRADE ORIENTATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADING PARTNERS WORLD TRADE WTO Coulibaly, Souleymane Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| geographic_facet |
Latin America & Caribbean South Asia East Asia and Pacific Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4220 |
| description |
Many recent papers have pointed to
ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade
agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their
economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements
currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC),
Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and
MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members'
trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs,
he proposes a variable taking into account the number of
years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with
kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic
trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model.
The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have
had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade
over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the
most successful among them, with an estimated positive
impact on its members' imports from the rest of the
world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their
exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During
its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had
a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest
of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive
impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on
its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect
of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Coulibaly, Souleymane |
| author_facet |
Coulibaly, Souleymane |
| author_sort |
Coulibaly, Souleymane |
| title |
Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| title_short |
Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| title_full |
Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| title_fullStr |
Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach |
| title_sort |
evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/05/7558207/evaluating-trade-effect-developing-regional-trade-agreements-semi-parametric-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7090 |
| _version_ |
1764401862413385728 |