Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum
This paper presents a game theory model of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in 2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and brinksmanship is a rational response...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/07/9738591/referendum-response-consequences-sudan-game-between-juba-khartoum http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6816 |
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okr-10986-6816 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCOUNTING ALIGNMENT ALLIANCE ALLIANCES ANNUAL EXPENDITURES APPROPRIATION ARMED FORCES ARMS ARMS RACE ARMY ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION BID BOUNDARIES BOUNDARY BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES CITIZENS CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL SOCIETY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES COLLECTIVE ACTION COMMITMENT DEVICE CONFLICT CONFLICT MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS CONSTRAINT CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE COST OF WAR COUNTERPARTS CREDIBILITY CRISES DEATHS DECISION-MAKING DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES DEFENSE DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES DISABILITY DISEASES DISPUTES DIVORCE DRINKING WATER DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE ECONOMIC RESOURCES EDUCATION EXPENDITURES ELECTIONS FIGHTING FOUNDATIONS GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE STANDARDS GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUES HEALTH EXPENDITURES HEALTH OUTCOMES HEALTH SPENDING HOLDING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMF INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INFORMATION EQUILIBRIUM INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS LIVE BIRTHS MALARIA MARGINAL BENEFITS MATERNAL MORTALITY MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO MEASLES MEASLES IMMUNIZATION MEDIATION MEETINGS MILITARIZATION MILITARY EXPENDITURE MILITARY EXPENDITURES MILITARY FORCES MILITARY GOVERNMENT MILITARY POWER MILITARY SPENDING MILITIAS MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MODALITIES NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES NEGOTIATIONS NET PRESENT VALUE OBSERVERS OIL RESERVES OIL RESOURCES OPPORTUNITY COST OPPORTUNITY COSTS PEACE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS PEACE PROCESS PEACE PROCESSES PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE PEACEKEEPING POLICY BRIEF POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES POLITICAL PARTY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL VIOLENCE POLITICIANS POPULATION CENSUS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRINCIPAL-AGENT PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM PROGRESS PUBLIC ECONOMICS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS PUBLIC MONEY PUBLIC SPENDING REBEL RECONSTRUCTION REFERENDUM REFUGEE REPATRIATION RESPECT RETURN RETURNS REVENUE SHARING RISK NEUTRAL ROAD ROADS RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SANITATION SANITATION FACILITIES SCARCE RESOURCES SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SELF-DETERMINATION SERVICE DELIVERY SKILLED PERSONNEL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL SECTOR SOCIAL SERVICE SOLDIER STRATEGIC PLANNING SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TAX TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TERRORISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION UNCERTAINTY UNDERDEVELOPMENT UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE OF EXPORTS VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WORLD DEVELOPMENT |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTING ALIGNMENT ALLIANCE ALLIANCES ANNUAL EXPENDITURES APPROPRIATION ARMED FORCES ARMS ARMS RACE ARMY ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION BID BOUNDARIES BOUNDARY BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES CITIZENS CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL SOCIETY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES COLLECTIVE ACTION COMMITMENT DEVICE CONFLICT CONFLICT MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS CONSTRAINT CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE COST OF WAR COUNTERPARTS CREDIBILITY CRISES DEATHS DECISION-MAKING DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES DEFENSE DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES DISABILITY DISEASES DISPUTES DIVORCE DRINKING WATER DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE ECONOMIC RESOURCES EDUCATION EXPENDITURES ELECTIONS FIGHTING FOUNDATIONS GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE STANDARDS GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUES HEALTH EXPENDITURES HEALTH OUTCOMES HEALTH SPENDING HOLDING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMF INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INFORMATION EQUILIBRIUM INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS LIVE BIRTHS MALARIA MARGINAL BENEFITS MATERNAL MORTALITY MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO MEASLES MEASLES IMMUNIZATION MEDIATION MEETINGS MILITARIZATION MILITARY EXPENDITURE MILITARY EXPENDITURES MILITARY FORCES MILITARY GOVERNMENT MILITARY POWER MILITARY SPENDING MILITIAS MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MODALITIES NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES NEGOTIATIONS NET PRESENT VALUE OBSERVERS OIL RESERVES OIL RESOURCES OPPORTUNITY COST OPPORTUNITY COSTS PEACE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS PEACE PROCESS PEACE PROCESSES PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE PEACEKEEPING POLICY BRIEF POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES POLITICAL PARTY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL VIOLENCE POLITICIANS POPULATION CENSUS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRINCIPAL-AGENT PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM PROGRESS PUBLIC ECONOMICS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS PUBLIC MONEY PUBLIC SPENDING REBEL RECONSTRUCTION REFERENDUM REFUGEE REPATRIATION RESPECT RETURN RETURNS REVENUE SHARING RISK NEUTRAL ROAD ROADS RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SANITATION SANITATION FACILITIES SCARCE RESOURCES SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SELF-DETERMINATION SERVICE DELIVERY SKILLED PERSONNEL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL SECTOR SOCIAL SERVICE SOLDIER STRATEGIC PLANNING SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TAX TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TERRORISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION UNCERTAINTY UNDERDEVELOPMENT UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE OF EXPORTS VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WORLD DEVELOPMENT Elbadawi, Ibrahim Milante, Gary Pischedda, Costantino Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Sudan |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper No. 4684 |
| description |
This paper presents a game theory model
of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba
leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in
2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and
brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors,
neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of
military spending under the current status quo. This
militarization is often at the expense of health and
education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost
of militarization is foregone economic development. These
credibility issues might be resolved by democratization,
increased transparency, reduction of information
asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political
cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating
how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in
equilibrium. The authors characterize the military
expenditure associated with the commitment problem
experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for
Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone
development implied by continued, excessive, and
unsustainable militarization. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim Milante, Gary Pischedda, Costantino |
| author_facet |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim Milante, Gary Pischedda, Costantino |
| author_sort |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim |
| title |
Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| title_short |
Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| title_full |
Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| title_fullStr |
Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum |
| title_sort |
referendum, response, and consequences for sudan : the game between juba and khartoum |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/07/9738591/referendum-response-consequences-sudan-game-between-juba-khartoum http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6816 |
| _version_ |
1764401150658871296 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-68162021-04-23T14:02:32Z Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum Elbadawi, Ibrahim Milante, Gary Pischedda, Costantino ACCOUNTING ALIGNMENT ALLIANCE ALLIANCES ANNUAL EXPENDITURES APPROPRIATION ARMED FORCES ARMS ARMS RACE ARMY ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION BID BOUNDARIES BOUNDARY BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES CITIZENS CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL SOCIETY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WARS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES COLLECTIVE ACTION COMMITMENT DEVICE CONFLICT CONFLICT MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS CONSTRAINT CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE COST OF WAR COUNTERPARTS CREDIBILITY CRISES DEATHS DECISION-MAKING DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES DEFENSE DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES DISABILITY DISEASES DISPUTES DIVORCE DRINKING WATER DUMMY VARIABLE ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE ECONOMIC RESOURCES EDUCATION EXPENDITURES ELECTIONS FIGHTING FOUNDATIONS GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE STANDARDS GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUES HEALTH EXPENDITURES HEALTH OUTCOMES HEALTH SPENDING HOLDING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMF INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES INFORMATION EQUILIBRIUM INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS LIVE BIRTHS MALARIA MARGINAL BENEFITS MATERNAL MORTALITY MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO MEASLES MEASLES IMMUNIZATION MEDIATION MEETINGS MILITARIZATION MILITARY EXPENDITURE MILITARY EXPENDITURES MILITARY FORCES MILITARY GOVERNMENT MILITARY POWER MILITARY SPENDING MILITIAS MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MODALITIES NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES NEGOTIATIONS NET PRESENT VALUE OBSERVERS OIL RESERVES OIL RESOURCES OPPORTUNITY COST OPPORTUNITY COSTS PEACE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS PEACE PROCESS PEACE PROCESSES PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE PEACEKEEPING POLICY BRIEF POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES POLITICAL PARTY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL VIOLENCE POLITICIANS POPULATION CENSUS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY SCHOOL PRINCIPAL-AGENT PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM PROGRESS PUBLIC ECONOMICS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS PUBLIC MONEY PUBLIC SPENDING REBEL RECONSTRUCTION REFERENDUM REFUGEE REPATRIATION RESPECT RETURN RETURNS REVENUE SHARING RISK NEUTRAL ROAD ROADS RULE OF LAW SAFETY NET SANITATION SANITATION FACILITIES SCARCE RESOURCES SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SELF-DETERMINATION SERVICE DELIVERY SKILLED PERSONNEL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL SECTOR SOCIAL SERVICE SOLDIER STRATEGIC PLANNING SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TAX TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TERRORISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION UNCERTAINTY UNDERDEVELOPMENT UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE OF EXPORTS VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WORLD DEVELOPMENT This paper presents a game theory model of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in 2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors, neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of military spending under the current status quo. This militarization is often at the expense of health and education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost of militarization is foregone economic development. These credibility issues might be resolved by democratization, increased transparency, reduction of information asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in equilibrium. The authors characterize the military expenditure associated with the commitment problem experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone development implied by continued, excessive, and unsustainable militarization. 2012-05-31T21:37:17Z 2012-05-31T21:37:17Z 2008-07 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/07/9738591/referendum-response-consequences-sudan-game-between-juba-khartoum http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6816 English Policy Research Working Paper No. 4684 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Sudan |