Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near fut...

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Main Authors:	Wang, Jinxia, Mendelsohn, Robert, Dinar, Ariel, Huang, Jikun, Rozelle, Scott, Zhang, Lijuan
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2012
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRONOMY AIR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATE ZONES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CORN COTTON CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROP YIELDS CROPLAND CROPPING CROPS CULTIVATED LAND DEMAND FOR FOOD ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ELASTICITY EMISSIONS EMISSIONS REDUCTION EXTENSION FAO FARM FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARMER FARMERS FARMS FEED FERTILIZER FIELD CROPS FOOD CROPS FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PROJECTIONS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY FOREST FORESTRY GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY GLOBAL PRECIPITATION GLOBAL WARMING GRAIN GRAIN CROPS GRAIN PRODUCTION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GASES HARVESTING HARVESTING EQUIPMENT INCOMES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAND VALUE LATIN AMERICAN LIVESTOCK LOAM SOILS MAIZE MAIZE PRODUCTION METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY METHANE MILLET NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NEW TECHNOLOGIES PESTICIDE POPULATION GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING RICE RICE AREAS RICE PRODUCTION RICE YIELDS RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS SCIENTISTS SEED SEEDS SINGLE CROP SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL TYPE SOIL TYPES SOILS SOUTH AMERICA SOYBEAN SPRING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE TEMPERATE REGIONS TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES WATER RESOURCES WATER SUPPLY WEATHER WHEAT WINTER WHEAT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/9048085/can-china-continue-feeding-impact-climate-change-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6592

id	okr-10986-6592
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-65922021-04-23T14:02:31Z Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Wang, Jinxia Mendelsohn, Robert Dinar, Ariel Huang, Jikun Rozelle, Scott Zhang, Lijuan AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRONOMY AIR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATE ZONES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CORN COTTON CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROP YIELDS CROPLAND CROPPING CROPS CULTIVATED LAND DEMAND FOR FOOD ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ELASTICITY EMISSIONS EMISSIONS REDUCTION EXTENSION FAO FARM FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARMER FARMERS FARMS FEED FERTILIZER FIELD CROPS FOOD CROPS FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PROJECTIONS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY FOREST FORESTRY GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY GLOBAL PRECIPITATION GLOBAL WARMING GRAIN GRAIN CROPS GRAIN PRODUCTION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GASES HARVESTING HARVESTING EQUIPMENT INCOMES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAND VALUE LATIN AMERICAN LIVESTOCK LOAM SOILS MAIZE MAIZE PRODUCTION METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY METHANE MILLET NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NEW TECHNOLOGIES PESTICIDE POPULATION GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING RICE RICE AREAS RICE PRODUCTION RICE YIELDS RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS SCIENTISTS SEED SEEDS SINGLE CROP SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL TYPE SOIL TYPES SOILS SOUTH AMERICA SOYBEAN SPRING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE TEMPERATE REGIONS TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES WATER RESOURCES WATER SUPPLY WEATHER WHEAT WINTER WHEAT Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study. 2012-05-29T19:02:52Z 2012-05-29T19:02:52Z 2008-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/9048085/can-china-continue-feeding-impact-climate-change-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6592 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4470 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research East Asia and Pacific China
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRONOMY AIR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATE ZONES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CORN COTTON CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROP YIELDS CROPLAND CROPPING CROPS CULTIVATED LAND DEMAND FOR FOOD ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ELASTICITY EMISSIONS EMISSIONS REDUCTION EXTENSION FAO FARM FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARMER FARMERS FARMS FEED FERTILIZER FIELD CROPS FOOD CROPS FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PROJECTIONS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY FOREST FORESTRY GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY GLOBAL PRECIPITATION GLOBAL WARMING GRAIN GRAIN CROPS GRAIN PRODUCTION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GASES HARVESTING HARVESTING EQUIPMENT INCOMES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAND VALUE LATIN AMERICAN LIVESTOCK LOAM SOILS MAIZE MAIZE PRODUCTION METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY METHANE MILLET NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NEW TECHNOLOGIES PESTICIDE POPULATION GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING RICE RICE AREAS RICE PRODUCTION RICE YIELDS RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS SCIENTISTS SEED SEEDS SINGLE CROP SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL TYPE SOIL TYPES SOILS SOUTH AMERICA SOYBEAN SPRING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE TEMPERATE REGIONS TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES WATER RESOURCES WATER SUPPLY WEATHER WHEAT WINTER WHEAT
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRONOMY AIR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE EFFECTS CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE RESEARCH CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATE WARMING CLIMATE ZONES CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CORN COTTON CROP CROP PRODUCTION CROP YIELDS CROPLAND CROPPING CROPS CULTIVATED LAND DEMAND FOR FOOD ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ELASTICITY EMISSIONS EMISSIONS REDUCTION EXTENSION FAO FARM FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARMER FARMERS FARMS FEED FERTILIZER FIELD CROPS FOOD CROPS FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PROJECTIONS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY FOREST FORESTRY GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY GLOBAL PRECIPITATION GLOBAL WARMING GRAIN GRAIN CROPS GRAIN PRODUCTION GRAINS GREENHOUSE GASES HARVESTING HARVESTING EQUIPMENT INCOMES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IPCC IRRIGATION LAND VALUE LATIN AMERICAN LIVESTOCK LOAM SOILS MAIZE MAIZE PRODUCTION METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS METEOROLOGY METHANE MILLET NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NEW TECHNOLOGIES PESTICIDE POPULATION GROWTH PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RAINFED FARMING RICE RICE AREAS RICE PRODUCTION RICE YIELDS RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS SCIENTISTS SEED SEEDS SINGLE CROP SOIL SOIL CHARACTERISTICS SOIL TYPE SOIL TYPES SOILS SOUTH AMERICA SOYBEAN SPRING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE TEMPERATE REGIONS TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGES TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES WATER RESOURCES WATER SUPPLY WEATHER WHEAT WINTER WHEAT Wang, Jinxia Mendelsohn, Robert Dinar, Ariel Huang, Jikun Rozelle, Scott Zhang, Lijuan Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific China
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4470
description	Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Wang, Jinxia Mendelsohn, Robert Dinar, Ariel Huang, Jikun Rozelle, Scott Zhang, Lijuan
author_facet	Wang, Jinxia Mendelsohn, Robert Dinar, Ariel Huang, Jikun Rozelle, Scott Zhang, Lijuan
author_sort	Wang, Jinxia
title	Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
title_short	Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
title_full	Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
title_fullStr	Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
title_full_unstemmed	Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
title_sort	can china continue feeding itself? the impact of climate change on agriculture
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/9048085/can-china-continue-feeding-impact-climate-change-agriculture http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6592
_version_	1764400582967164928

Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

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