Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?

In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries a...

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Main Authors: Arbache, Jorge, Go, Delfin S., Page, John
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:
GDP
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/02/9354346/africas-economy-turning-point
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6527
id okr-10986-6527
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic ABSOLUTE VALUE
ACCOUNTABILITY
ADJUSTMENT POLICIES
AGGREGATE INVESTMENT
AGGREGATE LEVEL
AGGREGATE OUTPUT
AGRICULTURE
ANNUAL GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
AVERAGE GROWTH RATES
AVERAGE INCOME
AVERAGE INCOMES
BAD GOVERNANCE
CAPITA GROWTH
CAPITAL MARKETS
CASE STUDIES
COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
COMMODITY PRICES
COMMON MARKET
COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE
COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATE
COMPETITIVENESS
CONNECTIVITY
CONSUMER PRICE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
CONSUMERS
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
CORRUPTION
COUNTRY DATA
COUNTRY INITIATIVE
COUNTRY LEVEL
CRITICAL MASS
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
DEBT
DEBT RELIEF
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
DIRECT INVESTMENT
DOMESTIC INFLATION
ECONOMIC BOOM
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC EXPANSION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
EMPIRICAL STUDIES
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
EXCHANGE RATES
EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
EXPORTS
EXPOSURE
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
FISCAL DEFICIT
FISCAL DEFICITS
FISCAL POLICY
FIXED CAPITAL
FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
FOOD PRICES
FOREIGN AID
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
FOREIGN INVESTMENTS
FUTURE GROWTH
GDP
GDP DEFLATOR
GDP PER CAPITA
GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBALIZATION
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
GROWTH EPISODE
GROWTH PATH
GROWTH PATTERN
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
GROWTH VOLATILITY
HARMONIZATION
HIGH GROWTH
HIGH INFLATION
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
INCOME
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME LEVEL
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
INFANT MORTALITY
INFLATION
INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LOCAL CURRENCY
LONG-RUN GROWTH
LONG-TERM GROWTH
LOW INCOME
LOW INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRY
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MACROECONOMIC POLICY
MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
MARGINAL RETURNS
MEAN GROWTH
MIDDLE EAST
MIDDLE INCOME
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES
MONETARY UNION
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
NATURAL DISASTERS
NET EXPORTS
NORTH AFRICA
OIL EXPORTERS
OUTPUT GROWTH
OUTPUT RATIO
OUTPUT VOLATILITY
OUTPUTS
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
POLICY CIRCLES
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL CONDITIONS
POLITICAL INSTABILITY
POLITICAL STABILITY
POOR COUNTRIES
PRICE INCREASES
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
PRIVATE SECTOR
PUBLIC DEBT
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC POLICY
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT
PURCHASING POWER
PURCHASING POWER PARITY
RAPID GROWTH
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
REAL GDP
REGIONAL GROUPINGS
REGULATORY QUALITY
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
REPUTATION
RICH COUNTRIES
RICH ECONOMIES
RULE OF LAW
SAHARA
SAVINGS
SHARE OF WORLD TRADE
SHARP REDUCTION
SMALL COUNTRIES
SOCIAL OUTCOMES
SOCIAL VARIABLES
STAGNATION
STANDARD ERRORS
STRUCTURAL BREAK
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
TAXATION
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
THE GAMBIA
TRADE SHOCKS
VALUE ADDED
WEALTH
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
spellingShingle ABSOLUTE VALUE
ACCOUNTABILITY
ADJUSTMENT POLICIES
AGGREGATE INVESTMENT
AGGREGATE LEVEL
AGGREGATE OUTPUT
AGRICULTURE
ANNUAL GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
AVERAGE GROWTH RATES
AVERAGE INCOME
AVERAGE INCOMES
BAD GOVERNANCE
CAPITA GROWTH
CAPITAL MARKETS
CASE STUDIES
COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
COMMODITY PRICES
COMMON MARKET
COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE
COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATE
COMPETITIVENESS
CONNECTIVITY
CONSUMER PRICE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
CONSUMERS
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
CORRUPTION
COUNTRY DATA
COUNTRY INITIATIVE
COUNTRY LEVEL
CRITICAL MASS
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
DEBT
DEBT RELIEF
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
DIRECT INVESTMENT
DOMESTIC INFLATION
ECONOMIC BOOM
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC EXPANSION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
EMPIRICAL STUDIES
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
EXCHANGE RATES
EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
EXPORTS
EXPOSURE
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
FISCAL DEFICIT
FISCAL DEFICITS
FISCAL POLICY
FIXED CAPITAL
FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
FOOD PRICES
FOREIGN AID
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
FOREIGN INVESTMENTS
FUTURE GROWTH
GDP
GDP DEFLATOR
GDP PER CAPITA
GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBALIZATION
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
GROWTH EPISODE
GROWTH PATH
GROWTH PATTERN
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
GROWTH VOLATILITY
HARMONIZATION
HIGH GROWTH
HIGH INFLATION
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
INCOME
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME LEVEL
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
INFANT MORTALITY
INFLATION
INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LOCAL CURRENCY
LONG-RUN GROWTH
LONG-TERM GROWTH
LOW INCOME
LOW INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
LOW-INCOME COUNTRY
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MACROECONOMIC POLICY
MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
MARGINAL RETURNS
MEAN GROWTH
MIDDLE EAST
MIDDLE INCOME
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES
MONETARY UNION
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
NATURAL DISASTERS
NET EXPORTS
NORTH AFRICA
OIL EXPORTERS
OUTPUT GROWTH
OUTPUT RATIO
OUTPUT VOLATILITY
OUTPUTS
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
POLICY CIRCLES
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL CONDITIONS
POLITICAL INSTABILITY
POLITICAL STABILITY
POOR COUNTRIES
PRICE INCREASES
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
PRIVATE SECTOR
PUBLIC DEBT
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC POLICY
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT
PURCHASING POWER
PURCHASING POWER PARITY
RAPID GROWTH
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
REAL GDP
REGIONAL GROUPINGS
REGULATORY QUALITY
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
REPUTATION
RICH COUNTRIES
RICH ECONOMIES
RULE OF LAW
SAHARA
SAVINGS
SHARE OF WORLD TRADE
SHARP REDUCTION
SMALL COUNTRIES
SOCIAL OUTCOMES
SOCIAL VARIABLES
STAGNATION
STANDARD ERRORS
STRUCTURAL BREAK
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
TAXATION
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
THE GAMBIA
TRADE SHOCKS
VALUE ADDED
WEALTH
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Arbache, Jorge
Go, Delfin S.
Page, John
Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
geographic_facet Africa
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
relation Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4519
description In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Arbache, Jorge
Go, Delfin S.
Page, John
author_facet Arbache, Jorge
Go, Delfin S.
Page, John
author_sort Arbache, Jorge
title Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
title_short Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
title_full Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
title_fullStr Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
title_full_unstemmed Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?
title_sort is africa's economy at a turning point?
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2012
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/02/9354346/africas-economy-turning-point
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6527
_version_ 1764400625968218112
spelling okr-10986-65272021-04-23T14:02:31Z Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point? Arbache, Jorge Go, Delfin S. Page, John ABSOLUTE VALUE ACCOUNTABILITY ADJUSTMENT POLICIES AGGREGATE INVESTMENT AGGREGATE LEVEL AGGREGATE OUTPUT AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BAD GOVERNANCE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL MARKETS CASE STUDIES COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMMON MARKET COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATE COMPETITIVENESS CONNECTIVITY CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES CONSUMERS CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CORRUPTION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY INITIATIVE COUNTRY LEVEL CRITICAL MASS CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DIRECT INVESTMENT DOMESTIC INFLATION ECONOMIC BOOM ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC EXPANSION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL SHOCKS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOOD PRICES FOREIGN AID FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FUTURE GROWTH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION GOVERNANCE INDICATOR GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS GROWTH EPISODE GROWTH PATH GROWTH PATTERN GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HARMONIZATION HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVEL INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES LIFE EXPECTANCY LOCAL CURRENCY LONG-RUN GROWTH LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION MARGINAL RETURNS MEAN GROWTH MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MONETARY UNION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL DISASTERS NET EXPORTS NORTH AFRICA OIL EXPORTERS OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT RATIO OUTPUT VOLATILITY OUTPUTS PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY CIRCLES POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL CONDITIONS POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL STABILITY POOR COUNTRIES PRICE INCREASES PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REGIONAL GROUPINGS REGULATORY QUALITY RELATIVE IMPORTANCE REPUTATION RICH COUNTRIES RICH ECONOMIES RULE OF LAW SAHARA SAVINGS SHARE OF WORLD TRADE SHARP REDUCTION SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL VARIABLES STAGNATION STANDARD ERRORS STRUCTURAL BREAK STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TAXATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE THE GAMBIA TRADE SHOCKS VALUE ADDED WEALTH WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times. 2012-05-29T14:38:19Z 2012-05-29T14:38:19Z 2008-02 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/02/9354346/africas-economy-turning-point http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6527 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4519 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa