Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?

In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries a...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Arbache, Jorge, Go, Delfin S., Page, John
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE VALUE ACCOUNTABILITY ADJUSTMENT POLICIES AGGREGATE INVESTMENT AGGREGATE LEVEL AGGREGATE OUTPUT AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BAD GOVERNANCE CAPITA GROWTH CAPITAL MARKETS CASE STUDIES COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMMON MARKET COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATE COMPETITIVENESS CONNECTIVITY CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES CONSUMERS CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS CORRUPTION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY INITIATIVE COUNTRY LEVEL CRITICAL MASS CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DIRECT INVESTMENT DOMESTIC INFLATION ECONOMIC BOOM ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC EXPANSION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATE REGIME EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL SHOCKS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOOD PRICES FOREIGN AID FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FUTURE GROWTH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION GOVERNANCE INDICATOR GOVERNANCE INDICATORS GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS GROWTH EPISODE GROWTH PATH GROWTH PATTERN GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH VOLATILITY HARMONIZATION HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVEL INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INFANT MORTALITY INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES LIFE EXPECTANCY LOCAL CURRENCY LONG-RUN GROWTH LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOW-INCOME COUNTRY MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION MARGINAL RETURNS MEAN GROWTH MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MONETARY UNION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL DISASTERS NET EXPORTS NORTH AFRICA OIL EXPORTERS OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT RATIO OUTPUT VOLATILITY OUTPUTS PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY CIRCLES POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL CONDITIONS POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL STABILITY POOR COUNTRIES PRICE INCREASES PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RAPID GROWTH RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REGIONAL GROUPINGS REGULATORY QUALITY RELATIVE IMPORTANCE REPUTATION RICH COUNTRIES RICH ECONOMIES RULE OF LAW SAHARA SAVINGS SHARE OF WORLD TRADE SHARP REDUCTION SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL OUTCOMES SOCIAL VARIABLES STAGNATION STANDARD ERRORS STRUCTURAL BREAK STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TAXATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE THE GAMBIA TRADE SHOCKS VALUE ADDED WEALTH WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/02/9354346/africas-economy-turning-point http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6527

Description
Summary:	In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.

Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?

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