Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion

The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, t...

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Main Authors: Bussolo, Maurizio, De Hoyos, Rafael E., Medvedev, Denis
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: Washington, DC: World Bank 2012
Subjects:
GDP
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/12301739/developing-world-catching-up-global-convergence-national-rising-dispersion
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6318
id okr-10986-6318
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE INCOME
AVERAGE INCOMES
BASE YEAR
BENCHMARK
CONSUMERS
CONVERGENCE PROCESS
COUNTRY INEQUALITY
COUNTRY PERFORMANCE
CUMULATIVE INCOME
DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS
DEMOGRAPHIC
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPING WORLD
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT REPORT
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECT
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
DOMESTIC MARKETS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
ECONOMIC REVIEW
ECONOMIC STRUCTURES
ECONOMIC TRENDS
ECONOMICS LETTERS
EDUCATION LEVEL
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EQUAL WEIGHT
EXCHANGE RATES
EXOGENOUS CHANGES
EXPLAINING CHANGES
EXPOSURE
FALLING POVERTY
FERTILITY RATES
FUTURE RESEARCH
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
GINI COEFFICIENT
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBAL LEVEL
GLOBALIZATION
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
INCOME
INCOME DATA
INCOME DIFFERENCES
INCOME DISPARITIES
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
INCOME GROUP
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME INEQUALITY
INCOME LEVELS
INCOME REDISTRIBUTION
INCOME SHARE
INDIVIDUAL INCOMES
INEQUALITY CHANGES
INEQUALITY CONSTANT
INEQUALITY CONVERGENCE
INEQUALITY INDEX
INEQUALITY LEVELS
INEQUALITY MEASURES
INEQUALITY WILL
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
LABOR FORCE
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LOCAL CURRENCY
LONG RUN
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
MACROECONOMIC MODELS
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
MACROECONOMICS
MEAN INCOME
MEAN LOG DEVIATION
MEASUREMENT ERRORS
MEASURING INCOME INEQUALITY
MEDIAN VOTER
MICRO DATA
MICRO MODEL
MIDDLE CLASS
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MORTALITY RATES
MULTILATERAL TRADE
NATIONAL INCOME
NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP
PARTICULAR COUNTRY
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
PER CAPITA INCOMES
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL ECONOMY
POLITICAL ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS
POOR COUNTRIES
POOR INDIVIDUALS
POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION SHARE
POPULOUS COUNTRIES
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY REDUCTION
POWER PARITY
PURCHASING POWER
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL INCOME
REDISTRIBUTION POLICIES
RELATIVE DISTANCE
RELATIVE INCOMES
RELATIVE WAGES
RICH COUNTRIES
RISING INCOME INEQUALITY
RISING INEQUALITY
SECTORAL COMPOSITION
SIMULATIONS
SKILL LEVEL
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE POLICY
WEALTH
WELL-BEING
WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION
WORLD INEQUALITY
WORLD TRADE
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
spellingShingle AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE INCOME
AVERAGE INCOMES
BASE YEAR
BENCHMARK
CONSUMERS
CONVERGENCE PROCESS
COUNTRY INEQUALITY
COUNTRY PERFORMANCE
CUMULATIVE INCOME
DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS
DEMOGRAPHIC
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPING WORLD
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT REPORT
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECT
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
DOMESTIC MARKETS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
ECONOMIC REVIEW
ECONOMIC STRUCTURES
ECONOMIC TRENDS
ECONOMICS LETTERS
EDUCATION LEVEL
EMERGING ECONOMIES
EQUAL WEIGHT
EXCHANGE RATES
EXOGENOUS CHANGES
EXPLAINING CHANGES
EXPOSURE
FALLING POVERTY
FERTILITY RATES
FUTURE RESEARCH
GDP
GDP PER CAPITA
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
GINI COEFFICIENT
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBAL LEVEL
GLOBALIZATION
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
INCOME
INCOME DATA
INCOME DIFFERENCES
INCOME DISPARITIES
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
INCOME GROUP
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME INEQUALITY
INCOME LEVELS
INCOME REDISTRIBUTION
INCOME SHARE
INDIVIDUAL INCOMES
INEQUALITY CHANGES
INEQUALITY CONSTANT
INEQUALITY CONVERGENCE
INEQUALITY INDEX
INEQUALITY LEVELS
INEQUALITY MEASURES
INEQUALITY WILL
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
LABOR FORCE
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LOCAL CURRENCY
LONG RUN
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
MACROECONOMIC MODELS
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
MACROECONOMICS
MEAN INCOME
MEAN LOG DEVIATION
MEASUREMENT ERRORS
MEASURING INCOME INEQUALITY
MEDIAN VOTER
MICRO DATA
MICRO MODEL
MIDDLE CLASS
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MORTALITY RATES
MULTILATERAL TRADE
NATIONAL INCOME
NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP
PARTICULAR COUNTRY
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
PER CAPITA INCOMES
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL ECONOMY
POLITICAL ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS
POOR COUNTRIES
POOR INDIVIDUALS
POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION SHARE
POPULOUS COUNTRIES
POSITIVE EFFECTS
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY REDUCTION
POWER PARITY
PURCHASING POWER
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL INCOME
REDISTRIBUTION POLICIES
RELATIVE DISTANCE
RELATIVE INCOMES
RELATIVE WAGES
RICH COUNTRIES
RISING INCOME INEQUALITY
RISING INEQUALITY
SECTORAL COMPOSITION
SIMULATIONS
SKILL LEVEL
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE POLICY
WEALTH
WELL-BEING
WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION
WORLD INEQUALITY
WORLD TRADE
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
Bussolo, Maurizio
De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Medvedev, Denis
Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
relation Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4733
description The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the projected convergence in average incomes across countries, with poor and populous countries growing faster than the rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be accompanied by a widening of income distribution in two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of consumers who demand access to, and have the means to purchase, international goods and services. The results show that the share of these consumers in the global population is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which global inequality began showing a negative tendency.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Bussolo, Maurizio
De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Medvedev, Denis
author_facet Bussolo, Maurizio
De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Medvedev, Denis
author_sort Bussolo, Maurizio
title Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
title_short Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
title_full Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
title_fullStr Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
title_full_unstemmed Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
title_sort is the developing world catching up? global convergence and national rising dispersion
publisher Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate 2012
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/12301739/developing-world-catching-up-global-convergence-national-rising-dispersion
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6318
_version_ 1764399859346964480
spelling okr-10986-63182021-04-23T14:02:30Z Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion Bussolo, Maurizio De Hoyos, Rafael E. Medvedev, Denis AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CONSUMERS CONVERGENCE PROCESS COUNTRY INEQUALITY COUNTRY PERFORMANCE CUMULATIVE INCOME DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING REGIONS DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT REPORT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECT DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DOMESTIC MARKETS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC TRENDS ECONOMICS LETTERS EDUCATION LEVEL EMERGING ECONOMIES EQUAL WEIGHT EXCHANGE RATES EXOGENOUS CHANGES EXPLAINING CHANGES EXPOSURE FALLING POVERTY FERTILITY RATES FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP PER CAPITA GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION GINI COEFFICIENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL LEVEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE INCOME INCOME DATA INCOME DIFFERENCES INCOME DISPARITIES INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME GROUP INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOME REDISTRIBUTION INCOME SHARE INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY CHANGES INEQUALITY CONSTANT INEQUALITY CONVERGENCE INEQUALITY INDEX INEQUALITY LEVELS INEQUALITY MEASURES INEQUALITY WILL INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR FORCE LIFE EXPECTANCY LOCAL CURRENCY LONG RUN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMICS MEAN INCOME MEAN LOG DEVIATION MEASUREMENT ERRORS MEASURING INCOME INEQUALITY MEDIAN VOTER MICRO DATA MICRO MODEL MIDDLE CLASS MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MORTALITY RATES MULTILATERAL TRADE NATIONAL INCOME NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP PARTICULAR COUNTRY PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS POOR COUNTRIES POOR INDIVIDUALS POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION SHARE POPULOUS COUNTRIES POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POWER PARITY PURCHASING POWER RATE OF GROWTH REAL INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POLICIES RELATIVE DISTANCE RELATIVE INCOMES RELATIVE WAGES RICH COUNTRIES RISING INCOME INEQUALITY RISING INEQUALITY SECTORAL COMPOSITION SIMULATIONS SKILL LEVEL STRUCTURAL CHANGE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY WEALTH WELL-BEING WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION WORLD INEQUALITY WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the projected convergence in average incomes across countries, with poor and populous countries growing faster than the rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be accompanied by a widening of income distribution in two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of consumers who demand access to, and have the means to purchase, international goods and services. The results show that the share of these consumers in the global population is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which global inequality began showing a negative tendency. 2012-05-22T19:40:59Z 2012-05-22T19:40:59Z 2008-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/12301739/developing-world-catching-up-global-convergence-national-rising-dispersion http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6318 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4733 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research