Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion
The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, t...
Main Authors: | , , |
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Washington, DC: World Bank
2012
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/12301739/developing-world-catching-up-global-convergence-national-rising-dispersion http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6318 |
Summary: | The present study uses the GIDD, a
CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution
Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global
income distribution. Three main robust results emerge.
First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a
reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This
potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the
projected convergence in average incomes across countries,
with poor and populous countries growing faster than the
rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be
accompanied by a widening of income distribution in
two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being
increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may
counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment
is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of
consumers who demand access to, and have the means to
purchase, international goods and services. The results show
that the share of these consumers in the global population
is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These
ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that
the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which
global inequality began showing a negative tendency. |
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