Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of Household-level Impacts
This paper investigates the impact of increases in wheat flour prices on household food security using unique nationally-representative data collected in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008. It uses a new estimator, the Unconditional Quantile Regression...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/04/16204162/food-security-wheat-prices-afghanistan-distribution-sensitive-analysis-household-level-impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6027 |
| id |
okr-10986-6027 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-60272021-04-23T14:02:24Z Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of Household-level Impacts D'Souza, Anna Jolliffe, Dean ACCESS TO FOOD ACCESS TO MARKETS ACCESS TO SERVICES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICES BREAD CALORIC INTAKE CALORIE INTAKE CALORIES PER DAY CALORIES PER PERSON CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY CENTRAL REGION CHILD NUTRITION COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONDIMENTS CONFLICT CONSUMPTION QUINTILES COOKING DIETARY DIVERSITY DRINKING WATER DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC SHOCK ECONOMIC SHOCKS FEMALE HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS FOOD AID FOOD COMPOSITION FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CONSUMPTION DATA FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD INSECURITY FOOD INTAKE FOOD ITEMS FOOD NEEDS FOOD POLICY FOOD POVERTY FOOD POVERTY LINE FOOD PREFERENCES FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICE INFLATION FOOD PRICES FOOD QUANTITY FOOD SECURITY FOODS FRUIT GRAINS HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING IFPRI INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INVENTORY LAMB MALNUTRITION MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES MILK MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTRY NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NUTRIENT ABSORPTION NUTRITION NUTRITIONAL CONSEQUENCES NUTRITIONAL STATUS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POORER HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY STATUS PRICE CHANGES PRICE EFFECT PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE INDEX PULSES PURCHASING RETAIL RETAIL PRICES RICE RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL POOR RURAL REHABILITATION SAFETY NET SPICES STAPLE FOODS STOCKS SUBSISTENCE SUBSISTENCE FARMERS SUBSTITUTE SUGAR SUPPLIERS TARGETING TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES VOLATILITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT VULNERABLE GROUPS VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WAGE EARNERS WAGE PREMIUM WFP WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHEAT MARKETS WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME This paper investigates the impact of increases in wheat flour prices on household food security using unique nationally-representative data collected in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008. It uses a new estimator, the Unconditional Quantile Regression estimator, based on influence functions, to examine the marginal effects of price increases at different locations on the distributions of several food security measures. The estimates reveal that the negative marginal effect of a price increase on food consumption is two and a half times larger for households that can afford to cut the value of food consumption (75th quantile) than for households at the bottom (25th quantile) of the food-consumption distribution. Similarly, households with diets high in calories reduce intake substantially, but those at the bottom of the calorie distribution (25th quantile) make very small changes in intake as a result of the price increases. In contrast, households at the bottom of the dietary diversity distribution make the largest adjustments in the quality of their diets, since such households often live at subsistence levels and cannot make large cuts in caloric intake without suffering serious health consequences. These results provide empirical evidence that when faced with staple-food price increases, food-insecure households sacrifice quality (diversity) in order to protect calories. The large differences in behavioral responses of households that lie at the top and bottom of these distributions suggest that policy analyses relying solely on ordinary least squares estimates may be misleading. 2012-04-27T07:43:57Z 2012-04-27T07:43:57Z 2012-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/04/16204162/food-security-wheat-prices-afghanistan-distribution-sensitive-analysis-household-level-impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6027 English Policy Research Working Paper ; No. 6024 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research South Asia Afghanistan |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCESS TO FOOD ACCESS TO MARKETS ACCESS TO SERVICES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICES BREAD CALORIC INTAKE CALORIE INTAKE CALORIES PER DAY CALORIES PER PERSON CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY CENTRAL REGION CHILD NUTRITION COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONDIMENTS CONFLICT CONSUMPTION QUINTILES COOKING DIETARY DIVERSITY DRINKING WATER DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC SHOCK ECONOMIC SHOCKS FEMALE HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS FOOD AID FOOD COMPOSITION FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CONSUMPTION DATA FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD INSECURITY FOOD INTAKE FOOD ITEMS FOOD NEEDS FOOD POLICY FOOD POVERTY FOOD POVERTY LINE FOOD PREFERENCES FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICE INFLATION FOOD PRICES FOOD QUANTITY FOOD SECURITY FOODS FRUIT GRAINS HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING IFPRI INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INVENTORY LAMB MALNUTRITION MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES MILK MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTRY NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NUTRIENT ABSORPTION NUTRITION NUTRITIONAL CONSEQUENCES NUTRITIONAL STATUS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POORER HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY STATUS PRICE CHANGES PRICE EFFECT PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE INDEX PULSES PURCHASING RETAIL RETAIL PRICES RICE RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL POOR RURAL REHABILITATION SAFETY NET SPICES STAPLE FOODS STOCKS SUBSISTENCE SUBSISTENCE FARMERS SUBSTITUTE SUGAR SUPPLIERS TARGETING TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES VOLATILITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT VULNERABLE GROUPS VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WAGE EARNERS WAGE PREMIUM WFP WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHEAT MARKETS WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO FOOD ACCESS TO MARKETS ACCESS TO SERVICES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICES BREAD CALORIC INTAKE CALORIE INTAKE CALORIES PER DAY CALORIES PER PERSON CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY CENTRAL REGION CHILD NUTRITION COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONDIMENTS CONFLICT CONSUMPTION QUINTILES COOKING DIETARY DIVERSITY DRINKING WATER DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC SHOCK ECONOMIC SHOCKS FEMALE HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS FOOD AID FOOD COMPOSITION FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CONSUMPTION DATA FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD INSECURITY FOOD INTAKE FOOD ITEMS FOOD NEEDS FOOD POLICY FOOD POVERTY FOOD POVERTY LINE FOOD PREFERENCES FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICE INFLATION FOOD PRICES FOOD QUANTITY FOOD SECURITY FOODS FRUIT GRAINS HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING IFPRI INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INVENTORY LAMB MALNUTRITION MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES MILK MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTRY NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NUTRIENT ABSORPTION NUTRITION NUTRITIONAL CONSEQUENCES NUTRITIONAL STATUS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POORER HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY STATUS PRICE CHANGES PRICE EFFECT PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE INDEX PULSES PURCHASING RETAIL RETAIL PRICES RICE RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL POOR RURAL REHABILITATION SAFETY NET SPICES STAPLE FOODS STOCKS SUBSISTENCE SUBSISTENCE FARMERS SUBSTITUTE SUGAR SUPPLIERS TARGETING TRANSACTION COSTS VEGETABLES VOLATILITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT VULNERABLE GROUPS VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WAGE EARNERS WAGE PREMIUM WFP WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHEAT MARKETS WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME D'Souza, Anna Jolliffe, Dean Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of Household-level Impacts |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia Afghanistan |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper ; No. 6024 |
| description |
This paper investigates the impact of
increases in wheat flour prices on household food security
using unique nationally-representative data collected in
Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008. It uses a new estimator, the
Unconditional Quantile Regression estimator, based on
influence functions, to examine the marginal effects of
price increases at different locations on the distributions
of several food security measures. The estimates reveal that
the negative marginal effect of a price increase on food
consumption is two and a half times larger for households
that can afford to cut the value of food consumption (75th
quantile) than for households at the bottom (25th quantile)
of the food-consumption distribution. Similarly, households
with diets high in calories reduce intake substantially, but
those at the bottom of the calorie distribution (25th
quantile) make very small changes in intake as a result of
the price increases. In contrast, households at the bottom
of the dietary diversity distribution make the largest
adjustments in the quality of their diets, since such
households often live at subsistence levels and cannot make
large cuts in caloric intake without suffering serious
health consequences. These results provide empirical
evidence that when faced with staple-food price increases,
food-insecure households sacrifice quality (diversity) in
order to protect calories. The large differences in
behavioral responses of households that lie at the top and
bottom of these distributions suggest that policy analyses
relying solely on ordinary least squares estimates may be misleading. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
D'Souza, Anna Jolliffe, Dean |
| author_facet |
D'Souza, Anna Jolliffe, Dean |
| author_sort |
D'Souza, Anna |
| title |
Food Security and Wheat Prices in
Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
Household-level Impacts |
| title_short |
Food Security and Wheat Prices in
Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
Household-level Impacts |
| title_full |
Food Security and Wheat Prices in
Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
Household-level Impacts |
| title_fullStr |
Food Security and Wheat Prices in
Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
Household-level Impacts |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Food Security and Wheat Prices in
Afghanistan : A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of
Household-level Impacts |
| title_sort |
food security and wheat prices in
afghanistan : a distribution-sensitive analysis of
household-level impacts |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/04/16204162/food-security-wheat-prices-afghanistan-distribution-sensitive-analysis-household-level-impacts http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6027 |
| _version_ |
1764397152868499456 |