Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Delavande, Adeline, Gine, Xavier, McKenzie, David
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	EN
Published:	2012
Subjects:	Survey Methods Sampling Methods C830 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D810 Expectations Speculations D840 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O120
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5629

id	okr-10986-5629
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-56292021-04-23T14:02:23Z Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? Delavande, Adeline Gine, Xavier McKenzie, David Survey Methods Sampling Methods C830 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D810 Expectations Speculations D840 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O120 Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy. 2012-03-30T07:33:45Z 2012-03-30T07:33:45Z 2011 Journal Article Journal of Applied Econometrics 08837252 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5629 EN http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Journal Article India
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	EN
topic	Survey Methods Sampling Methods C830 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D810 Expectations Speculations D840 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O120
spellingShingle	Survey Methods Sampling Methods C830 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D810 Expectations Speculations D840 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O120 Delavande, Adeline Gine, Xavier McKenzie, David Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
geographic_facet	India
relation	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
description	Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
format	Journal Article
author	Delavande, Adeline Gine, Xavier McKenzie, David
author_facet	Delavande, Adeline Gine, Xavier McKenzie, David
author_sort	Delavande, Adeline
title	Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
title_short	Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
title_full	Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
title_fullStr	Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
title_full_unstemmed	Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?
title_sort	eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?
publishDate	2012
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/5629
_version_	1764395736119640064

Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?

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