The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence
The author examines the impact of historical global downturns on trade flows. The results provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the coming years, how global imbalances are affe...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090806152233 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4208 |
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okr-10986-42082021-04-23T14:02:16Z The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence Freund, Caroline ABSOLUTE VALUE AGGREGATE EXPORTS AGGREGATE TRADE ASSET PRICES ASSETS BASE YEAR BORROWER CAPITAL OUTFLOW COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES CONSTANT DOLLARS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DEBT DEPENDENT VARIABLE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC CRISIS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS ELASTICITY OF TRADE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FORECASTS GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL IMBALANCES GLOBAL SLOWDOWNS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEBT GROSS VALUE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME COUNTRY IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME INCOME ELASTICITIES INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL DEBT INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL MONEY INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES LOCAL CURRENCY MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES OPENNESS OUTPUT OUTPUT DECLINES OUTSOURCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PROTECTIONISM PROTECTIONIST PROTECTIONIST POLICIES REAL EXPORT REAL EXPORT GROWTH REAL EXPORTS REAL GDP REAL IMPORT REAL IMPORTS REAL INCOME RECESSION RECESSIONS REGIONAL TRADE SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SURPLUS COUNTRIES TAX TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE DATA TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FINANCE TRADE FLOWS TRADE GROWTH TRADE IMPACT TRADE IN GOODS TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE STATISTICS TRADE SURPLUS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUMES TRANQUIL TIMES TRANSMISSION OF SHOCKS TROUGH VALUE ADDED VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD TRADE The author examines the impact of historical global downturns on trade flows. The results provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the coming years, how global imbalances are affected, and which regions and industries suffer most heavily. The author finds that the elasticity of global trade volumes to real world GDP has increased gradually from around 2 in the 1960s to above 3 now. The author also finds that trade is more responsive to GDP during global downturns than in tranquil times. The results suggest that the overall drop in real trade this year is likely to exceed 15 percent. There is significant variation across industries, with food and beverages the least affected and crude materials and fuels the most affected. On the positive side, trade tends to rebound very rapidly when the outlook brightens. The author also finds evidence that global downturns often lead to persistent improvements in the ratio of the trade balance to GDP in borrower countries. 2012-03-19T19:11:51Z 2012-03-19T19:11:51Z 2009-08-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090806152233 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4208 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5015 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ABSOLUTE VALUE AGGREGATE EXPORTS AGGREGATE TRADE ASSET PRICES ASSETS BASE YEAR BORROWER CAPITAL OUTFLOW COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES CONSTANT DOLLARS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DEBT DEPENDENT VARIABLE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC CRISIS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS ELASTICITY OF TRADE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FORECASTS GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL IMBALANCES GLOBAL SLOWDOWNS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEBT GROSS VALUE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME COUNTRY IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME INCOME ELASTICITIES INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL DEBT INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL MONEY INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES LOCAL CURRENCY MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES OPENNESS OUTPUT OUTPUT DECLINES OUTSOURCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PROTECTIONISM PROTECTIONIST PROTECTIONIST POLICIES REAL EXPORT REAL EXPORT GROWTH REAL EXPORTS REAL GDP REAL IMPORT REAL IMPORTS REAL INCOME RECESSION RECESSIONS REGIONAL TRADE SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SURPLUS COUNTRIES TAX TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE DATA TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FINANCE TRADE FLOWS TRADE GROWTH TRADE IMPACT TRADE IN GOODS TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE STATISTICS TRADE SURPLUS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUMES TRANQUIL TIMES TRANSMISSION OF SHOCKS TROUGH VALUE ADDED VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
ABSOLUTE VALUE AGGREGATE EXPORTS AGGREGATE TRADE ASSET PRICES ASSETS BASE YEAR BORROWER CAPITAL OUTFLOW COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES CONSTANT DOLLARS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DEBT DEPENDENT VARIABLE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC CRISIS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS ELASTICITY OF TRADE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FORECASTS GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL IMBALANCES GLOBAL SLOWDOWNS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEBT GROSS VALUE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME COUNTRY IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME INCOME ELASTICITIES INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL DEBT INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL MONEY INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES LOCAL CURRENCY MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES OPENNESS OUTPUT OUTPUT DECLINES OUTSOURCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PROTECTIONISM PROTECTIONIST PROTECTIONIST POLICIES REAL EXPORT REAL EXPORT GROWTH REAL EXPORTS REAL GDP REAL IMPORT REAL IMPORTS REAL INCOME RECESSION RECESSIONS REGIONAL TRADE SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SURPLUS COUNTRIES TAX TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE DATA TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE EFFECTS TRADE FINANCE TRADE FLOWS TRADE GROWTH TRADE IMPACT TRADE IN GOODS TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE STATISTICS TRADE SURPLUS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUMES TRANQUIL TIMES TRANSMISSION OF SHOCKS TROUGH VALUE ADDED VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD TRADE Freund, Caroline The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5015 |
| description |
The author examines the impact of
historical global downturns on trade flows. The results
provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically
in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the
coming years, how global imbalances are affected, and which
regions and industries suffer most heavily. The author finds
that the elasticity of global trade volumes to real world
GDP has increased gradually from around 2 in the 1960s to
above 3 now. The author also finds that trade is more
responsive to GDP during global downturns than in tranquil
times. The results suggest that the overall drop in real
trade this year is likely to exceed 15 percent. There is
significant variation across industries, with food and
beverages the least affected and crude materials and fuels
the most affected. On the positive side, trade tends to
rebound very rapidly when the outlook brightens. The author
also finds evidence that global downturns often lead to
persistent improvements in the ratio of the trade balance to
GDP in borrower countries. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Freund, Caroline |
| author_facet |
Freund, Caroline |
| author_sort |
Freund, Caroline |
| title |
The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| title_short |
The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| title_full |
The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| title_fullStr |
The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Trade Response to Global Downturns : Historical Evidence |
| title_sort |
trade response to global downturns : historical evidence |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090806152233 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4208 |
| _version_ |
1764390415260188672 |