Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia
This paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policyma...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4196 |
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okr-10986-41962021-04-23T14:02:16Z Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia Blankespoor, Brian Pandey, Kiran Dev Wheeler, David BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC RESEARCH CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT CRU DOMAIN EMISSIONS GCM GLOBAL SCALE GLOBAL WARMING INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LOW RAINFALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY RAIN RAINFALL SATELLITE SATELLITES SPRING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERNS WEATHER STATIONS WEB AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL CLIMATE DATA CLIMATE EVENTS CLIMATE FORECASTING CLIMATE MODELING CLIMATE PATTERNS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE TRENDS DISTILLATION ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EMISSIONS SCENARIOS FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL EMISSIONS HIGH TEMPERATURE LOCAL CLIMATE RAINFALL CONDITIONS RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL PATTERNS SEASONAL RAINFALL TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURES This paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of available climate models. The method described in the paper can be applied to publicly-available data for any country and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational, national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution) for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes. 2012-03-19T19:11:38Z 2012-03-19T19:11:38Z 2009-07-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4196 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5004 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Ethiopia |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC RESEARCH CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT CRU DOMAIN EMISSIONS GCM GLOBAL SCALE GLOBAL WARMING INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LOW RAINFALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY RAIN RAINFALL SATELLITE SATELLITES SPRING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERNS WEATHER STATIONS WEB AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL CLIMATE DATA CLIMATE EVENTS CLIMATE FORECASTING CLIMATE MODELING CLIMATE PATTERNS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE TRENDS DISTILLATION ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EMISSIONS SCENARIOS FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL EMISSIONS HIGH TEMPERATURE LOCAL CLIMATE RAINFALL CONDITIONS RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL PATTERNS SEASONAL RAINFALL TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURES |
| spellingShingle |
BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE VARIATION CLIMATIC RESEARCH CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT CRU DOMAIN EMISSIONS GCM GLOBAL SCALE GLOBAL WARMING INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC LOW RAINFALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY RAIN RAINFALL SATELLITE SATELLITES SPRING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERNS WEATHER STATIONS WEB AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL CLIMATE DATA CLIMATE EVENTS CLIMATE FORECASTING CLIMATE MODELING CLIMATE PATTERNS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE TRENDS DISTILLATION ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EMISSIONS SCENARIOS FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL EMISSIONS HIGH TEMPERATURE LOCAL CLIMATE RAINFALL CONDITIONS RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL PATTERNS SEASONAL RAINFALL TEMPERATURE RISES TEMPERATURES Blankespoor, Brian Pandey, Kiran Dev Wheeler, David Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Africa Ethiopia |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5004 |
| description |
This paper describes an approach to
forecasting future climate at the local level using
historical weather station and satellite data and future
projections of climate data from global climate models
(GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and
planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad
climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into
an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that
summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of
available climate models. The method described in the paper
can be applied to publicly-available data for any country
and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on
geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational,
national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the
results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate
scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical
displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average
temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution)
for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the
probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Blankespoor, Brian Pandey, Kiran Dev Wheeler, David |
| author_facet |
Blankespoor, Brian Pandey, Kiran Dev Wheeler, David |
| author_sort |
Blankespoor, Brian |
| title |
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| title_short |
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| title_full |
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia |
| title_sort |
forecasting local climate for policy analysis : a pilot application for ethiopia |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4196 |
| _version_ |
1764390359831412736 |