Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia
This paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policyma...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4196 |
| Summary: | This paper describes an approach to
forecasting future climate at the local level using
historical weather station and satellite data and future
projections of climate data from global climate models
(GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and
planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad
climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into
an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that
summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of
available climate models. The method described in the paper
can be applied to publicly-available data for any country
and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on
geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational,
national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the
results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate
scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical
displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average
temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution)
for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the
probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes. |
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