How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan
The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuse...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4164 |
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okr-10986-4164 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCESS TO EXTERNAL FINANCE ADDITIONAL INCOME ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY ADVISORY SERVICES AGGREGATE DEMAND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT BALANCE SHEETS BANK LENDING BANKING SYSTEM BILL BORROWING REQUIREMENT BROAD MONEY BUFFER BUSINESS CYCLE CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKING COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMERCIAL DEBT COMMERCIAL FINANCE COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS CONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS CONSUMER CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION SPENDING CONTRIBUTIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDITS CREDITWORTHINESS CRISIS MANAGEMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTION CURRENT EXPENDITURE DEBT BURDEN DEBT STOCK DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC CURRENCY DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM DONOR SUPPORT DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT EXCESS DEMAND EXCESS SUPPLY EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPANSIONARY FISCAL STANCE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BALANCE EXTERNAL CAPITAL EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBTS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL POSITION EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE EXTREME POVERTY FAMILIES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FRAGILITY FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSTRAINTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FISCAL POSITIONS FISCAL RESOURCES FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FORM OF CREDITS GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME GROUPS INCOME TAX INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS LACK OF COMPETITION LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN OBLIGATIONS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET PRICES MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRATION MONETARY FINANCING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NATIONAL INCOME OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTIMAL ALLOCATION PENSION PENSION SYSTEM POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE FLEXIBILITY PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT PUBLIC BORROWING PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC FACILITIES PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASES PURCHASING POWER REAL CONSUMPTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVE RESERVE MONEY RESERVES REVENUE MOBILIZATION RISK OF DEBT SAFETY NET SHORT TERM DEBT SHORTFALL SHORTFALLS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SERVICES STAKEHOLDERS STOCKS SURPLUSES TAX TAX EXEMPTIONS TAX RATE TAX RATES TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT TOTAL DEPOSITS TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE SHOCK TRANSFER PAYMENTS TRANSITION COUNTRY TRANSITION ECONOMIES TRANSPORT UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED WAGE WORLD MARKET |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO EXTERNAL FINANCE ADDITIONAL INCOME ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY ADVISORY SERVICES AGGREGATE DEMAND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT BALANCE SHEETS BANK LENDING BANKING SYSTEM BILL BORROWING REQUIREMENT BROAD MONEY BUFFER BUSINESS CYCLE CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKING COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMERCIAL DEBT COMMERCIAL FINANCE COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS CONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS CONSUMER CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION SPENDING CONTRIBUTIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDITS CREDITWORTHINESS CRISIS MANAGEMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTION CURRENT EXPENDITURE DEBT BURDEN DEBT STOCK DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC CURRENCY DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM DONOR SUPPORT DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT EXCESS DEMAND EXCESS SUPPLY EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPANSIONARY FISCAL STANCE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BALANCE EXTERNAL CAPITAL EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBTS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL POSITION EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE EXTREME POVERTY FAMILIES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FRAGILITY FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSTRAINTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FISCAL POSITIONS FISCAL RESOURCES FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FORM OF CREDITS GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME GROUPS INCOME TAX INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS LACK OF COMPETITION LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN OBLIGATIONS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET PRICES MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRATION MONETARY FINANCING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NATIONAL INCOME OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTIMAL ALLOCATION PENSION PENSION SYSTEM POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE FLEXIBILITY PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT PUBLIC BORROWING PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC FACILITIES PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASES PURCHASING POWER REAL CONSUMPTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVE RESERVE MONEY RESERVES REVENUE MOBILIZATION RISK OF DEBT SAFETY NET SHORT TERM DEBT SHORTFALL SHORTFALLS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SERVICES STAKEHOLDERS STOCKS SURPLUSES TAX TAX EXEMPTIONS TAX RATE TAX RATES TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT TOTAL DEPOSITS TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE SHOCK TRANSFER PAYMENTS TRANSITION COUNTRY TRANSITION ECONOMIES TRANSPORT UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED WAGE WORLD MARKET Brownbridge, Martin Canagarajah, Sudharshan How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Central Asia Asia Tajikistan |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4970 |
| description |
The paper analyses how the global
economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the
fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the
adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the
poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities
with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and
Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic
crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a
sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in
Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this
external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private
consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal
policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal
space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets
for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of
revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal
stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it
very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from
cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors,
preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support,
is required. If additional external budget support can be
mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to
protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if
sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a
program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public
infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant
workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of
scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or
protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social
assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the
poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not
as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Brownbridge, Martin Canagarajah, Sudharshan |
| author_facet |
Brownbridge, Martin Canagarajah, Sudharshan |
| author_sort |
Brownbridge, Martin |
| title |
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| title_short |
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| title_full |
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| title_fullStr |
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan |
| title_sort |
how should fiscal policy respond to the economic crisis in the low income commonwealth of independent states? some pointers from tajikistan |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4164 |
| _version_ |
1764390220143263744 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-41642021-04-23T14:02:15Z How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan Brownbridge, Martin Canagarajah, Sudharshan ACCESS TO EXTERNAL FINANCE ADDITIONAL INCOME ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY ADVISORY SERVICES AGGREGATE DEMAND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT BALANCE SHEETS BANK LENDING BANKING SYSTEM BILL BORROWING REQUIREMENT BROAD MONEY BUFFER BUSINESS CYCLE CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKING COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMERCIAL DEBT COMMERCIAL FINANCE COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS CONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS CONSUMER CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION SPENDING CONTRIBUTIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDITS CREDITWORTHINESS CRISIS MANAGEMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS CURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTION CURRENT EXPENDITURE DEBT BURDEN DEBT STOCK DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEVALUATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC CURRENCY DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM DONOR SUPPORT DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT EXCESS DEMAND EXCESS SUPPLY EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPANSIONARY FISCAL STANCE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BALANCE EXTERNAL CAPITAL EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBTS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL POSITION EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE EXTREME POVERTY FAMILIES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FRAGILITY FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL BALANCES FISCAL CONSTRAINTS FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FISCAL POSITIONS FISCAL RESOURCES FISCAL SURPLUSES FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FORM OF CREDITS GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLDS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME GROUPS INCOME TAX INFLATION INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS LACK OF COMPETITION LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN OBLIGATIONS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET PRICES MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRATION MONETARY FINANCING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NATIONAL INCOME OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTIMAL ALLOCATION PENSION PENSION SYSTEM POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE FLEXIBILITY PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT PUBLIC BORROWING PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT PUBLIC FACILITIES PUBLIC GOODS PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASES PURCHASING POWER REAL CONSUMPTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVE RESERVE MONEY RESERVES REVENUE MOBILIZATION RISK OF DEBT SAFETY NET SHORT TERM DEBT SHORTFALL SHORTFALLS SLOWDOWN SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SERVICES STAKEHOLDERS STOCKS SURPLUSES TAX TAX EXEMPTIONS TAX RATE TAX RATES TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT TOTAL DEPOSITS TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE SHOCK TRANSFER PAYMENTS TRANSITION COUNTRY TRANSITION ECONOMIES TRANSPORT UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED WAGE WORLD MARKET The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan. 2012-03-19T19:11:04Z 2012-03-19T19:11:04Z 2009-06-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4164 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4970 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Central Asia Asia Tajikistan |