Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?

There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause sig...

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Main Author:	Hochrainer, Stefan
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ANNUAL GROWTH ARIMA ARMA ASSETS AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE BUDGET DEFICIT BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION ANALYSIS CRED DAMAGES DEATH TOLL DEBT DEBT SERVICE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPRECIATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT NETWORK DISASTER DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER EVENT DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER PREVENTION DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER TYPE DOMESTIC CREDIT DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RISK ERROR TERMS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL IMBALANCES FLOOD FLOODS FORECASTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GDP GLOBALIZATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL HURRICANE IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDEBTEDNESS INDICATOR VARIABLES INFLATION INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INVENTORY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL CATASTROPHE NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL HAZARDS OPPORTUNITY COSTS OVERVALUATION PER CAPITA INCOME POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PUBLIC DEFICIT PUBLIC DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REINSURANCE REJECTION RELIEF REMITTANCES RISK TRANSFER STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL ANALYSES STOCHASTIC ERROR STORM STORMS SUPPLY SIDE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TIME HORIZON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TRADE BALANCES TRADE DEFICIT TROPICAL CYCLONES UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WEALTH WINTER STORMS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618131707 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4162

id	okr-10986-4162
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spelling	okr-10986-41622021-04-23T14:02:15Z Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any? Hochrainer, Stefan AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ANNUAL GROWTH ARIMA ARMA ASSETS AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE BUDGET DEFICIT BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION ANALYSIS CRED DAMAGES DEATH TOLL DEBT DEBT SERVICE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPRECIATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT NETWORK DISASTER DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER EVENT DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER PREVENTION DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER TYPE DOMESTIC CREDIT DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RISK ERROR TERMS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL IMBALANCES FLOOD FLOODS FORECASTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GDP GLOBALIZATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL HURRICANE IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDEBTEDNESS INDICATOR VARIABLES INFLATION INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INVENTORY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL CATASTROPHE NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL HAZARDS OPPORTUNITY COSTS OVERVALUATION PER CAPITA INCOME POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PUBLIC DEFICIT PUBLIC DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REINSURANCE REJECTION RELIEF REMITTANCES RISK TRANSFER STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL ANALYSES STOCHASTIC ERROR STORM STORMS SUPPLY SIDE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TIME HORIZON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TRADE BALANCES TRADE DEFICIT TROPICAL CYCLONES UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WEALTH WINTER STORMS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical. 2012-03-19T19:11:02Z 2012-03-19T19:11:02Z 2009-06-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618131707 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4162 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4968 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ANNUAL GROWTH ARIMA ARMA ASSETS AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE BUDGET DEFICIT BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION ANALYSIS CRED DAMAGES DEATH TOLL DEBT DEBT SERVICE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPRECIATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT NETWORK DISASTER DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER EVENT DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER PREVENTION DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER TYPE DOMESTIC CREDIT DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RISK ERROR TERMS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL IMBALANCES FLOOD FLOODS FORECASTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GDP GLOBALIZATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL HURRICANE IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDEBTEDNESS INDICATOR VARIABLES INFLATION INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INVENTORY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL CATASTROPHE NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL HAZARDS OPPORTUNITY COSTS OVERVALUATION PER CAPITA INCOME POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PUBLIC DEFICIT PUBLIC DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REINSURANCE REJECTION RELIEF REMITTANCES RISK TRANSFER STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL ANALYSES STOCHASTIC ERROR STORM STORMS SUPPLY SIDE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TIME HORIZON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TRADE BALANCES TRADE DEFICIT TROPICAL CYCLONES UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WEALTH WINTER STORMS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ANNUAL GROWTH ARIMA ARMA ASSETS AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE BUDGET DEFICIT BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION ANALYSIS CRED DAMAGES DEATH TOLL DEBT DEBT SERVICE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPRECIATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT NETWORK DISASTER DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER EVENT DISASTER EVENTS DISASTER PREVENTION DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER TYPE DOMESTIC CREDIT DROUGHT DROUGHTS EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RISK ERROR TERMS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL IMBALANCES FLOOD FLOODS FORECASTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GDP GLOBALIZATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL HURRICANE IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDEBTEDNESS INDICATOR VARIABLES INFLATION INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INVENTORY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL CATASTROPHE NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL HAZARDS OPPORTUNITY COSTS OVERVALUATION PER CAPITA INCOME POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS PUBLIC DEFICIT PUBLIC DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECONSTRUCTION REGRESSION ANALYSIS REINSURANCE REJECTION RELIEF REMITTANCES RISK TRANSFER STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL ANALYSES STOCHASTIC ERROR STORM STORMS SUPPLY SIDE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TIME HORIZON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TRADE BALANCES TRADE DEFICIT TROPICAL CYCLONES UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WEALTH WINTER STORMS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS Hochrainer, Stefan Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
geographic_facet	The World Region The World Region
relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4968
description	There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Hochrainer, Stefan
author_facet	Hochrainer, Stefan
author_sort	Hochrainer, Stefan
title	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
title_short	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
title_full	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
title_fullStr	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
title_sort	assessing the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters : are there any?
publishDate	2012
url	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618131707 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4162
_version_	1764390211918233600

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?

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