Natural Disasters and the Dynamics of Intangible Assets
Empirical evidence suggests that the higher-order effects of natural disasters, which affect intangible assets, may be even more important than the material inter-industry effects. However, most existing general equilibrium models ignore higher or...
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2012
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Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090324133542 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4069 |
Summary: | Empirical evidence suggests that the
higher-order effects of natural disasters, which affect
intangible assets, may be even more important than the
material inter-industry effects. However, most existing
general equilibrium models ignore higher order effects
concerning human capital. Moreover, it is recognized that
natural resource dependence increases vulnerability to
natural disasters. Recent studies have indeed shown the
potential importance of subsistence traps caused by asset
losses in low-income economies from a partial equilibrium
perspective. This paper presents an analysis that allows
for endogenous investments in real assets (physical capital)
as well as in human capital, explicitly considering the
potential for subsistence traps arising from minimum
consumption and minimum natural resource irreversibility
thresholds. The general equilibrium ramifications of
subsistence traps are developed. The main issue is that the
economy may be subject to hysteresis: A temporary shock such
as a natural disaster may leave permanent consequences for
the economy. An obvious permanent effect of a one-time
disaster shock is that physical man-made and natural assets
owned especially by poor households may end up completely
wiped out. The disaster may not be the direct cause; it may
be that poor households would have to obtain minimum
subsistence consumption out of depleted assets. However,
not all permanent effects of a one-time shock are negative.
Under certain conditions, the destruction of man-made
physical and natural capital may have general equilibrium
effects that increase the incentives to invest in human
capital and may even propel a formerly stagnating economy
into a virtuous path of continuing growth. |
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