Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence
The majority of economic decisions taken by individuals are forward looking and thus involve their expectations of future outcomes. Understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating polic...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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2012
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| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090129100701 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4021 |
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okr-10986-40212021-04-23T14:02:14Z Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David AGRICULTURE AMOUNT OF CREDIT AMOUNT OF DEBT AVERAGE EARNINGS BANK POLICY CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CURRENT INCOME DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATES DROUGHT EARNINGS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED RETURNS EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS EXPORTER EXPROPRIATION FAMILY MEMBER FAMILY MEMBERS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FIXED COST FORECASTS FORMAL EDUCATION FUTURE INCOME FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES GDP HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES INCOME INCOME LEVEL INCOME VOLATILITY INCOMES INFLATION INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT DECISIONS LIFE EXPECTANCY LIKERT SCALE LIVING STANDARDS LOW EARNINGS LOW INCOME MARKETING MATHEMATICS MICROENTERPRISES MONETARY INCENTIVES MORTALITY ORDERING OUTLIERS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRECISION PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PRICE CHANGES PRICE RISK PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTION INPUTS QUESTIONNAIRES RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS RISK AVERSE RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SKEWNESS SOCIAL NETWORKS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS SOURCE OF INFORMATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TAX UNEMPLOYMENT VALUABLE VARIABILITY WAGE WEALTH WEB YOUNG ADULTS The majority of economic decisions taken by individuals are forward looking and thus involve their expectations of future outcomes. Understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating policies in health, education, finance, migration, social protection, and many other areas. However, the majority of developing country surveys are static in nature and do not contain information on the subjective expectations of individuals. Possible reasons given for not collecting this information include fears that poor, illiterate individuals do not understand probability concepts, that it takes far too much time to ask such questions, or that the answers add little value. This paper provides a critical review and new analysis of subjective expectations data from developing countries and refutes each of these concerns. The authors find that people in developing countries can generally understand and answer probabilistic questions, such questions are not prohibitive in time to ask, and the expectations are useful predictors of future behavior and economic decisions. The paper discusses the different methods being tried for eliciting such information, the key methodological issues involved, and the open research questions. The available evidence suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible and valuable, suggesting that it should be incorporated into more developing country surveys. 2012-03-19T19:08:29Z 2012-03-19T19:08:29Z 2009-01-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090129100701 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4021 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4824 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
AGRICULTURE AMOUNT OF CREDIT AMOUNT OF DEBT AVERAGE EARNINGS BANK POLICY CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CURRENT INCOME DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATES DROUGHT EARNINGS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED RETURNS EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS EXPORTER EXPROPRIATION FAMILY MEMBER FAMILY MEMBERS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FIXED COST FORECASTS FORMAL EDUCATION FUTURE INCOME FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES GDP HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES INCOME INCOME LEVEL INCOME VOLATILITY INCOMES INFLATION INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT DECISIONS LIFE EXPECTANCY LIKERT SCALE LIVING STANDARDS LOW EARNINGS LOW INCOME MARKETING MATHEMATICS MICROENTERPRISES MONETARY INCENTIVES MORTALITY ORDERING OUTLIERS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRECISION PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PRICE CHANGES PRICE RISK PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTION INPUTS QUESTIONNAIRES RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS RISK AVERSE RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SKEWNESS SOCIAL NETWORKS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS SOURCE OF INFORMATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TAX UNEMPLOYMENT VALUABLE VARIABILITY WAGE WEALTH WEB YOUNG ADULTS |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURE AMOUNT OF CREDIT AMOUNT OF DEBT AVERAGE EARNINGS BANK POLICY CALCULATION CALCULATIONS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CURRENT INCOME DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATES DROUGHT EARNINGS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED RETURNS EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS EXPORTER EXPROPRIATION FAMILY MEMBER FAMILY MEMBERS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FIXED COST FORECASTS FORMAL EDUCATION FUTURE INCOME FUTURE RESEARCH FUTURE STUDIES GDP HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES INCOME INCOME LEVEL INCOME VOLATILITY INCOMES INFLATION INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT DECISIONS LIFE EXPECTANCY LIKERT SCALE LIVING STANDARDS LOW EARNINGS LOW INCOME MARKETING MATHEMATICS MICROENTERPRISES MONETARY INCENTIVES MORTALITY ORDERING OUTLIERS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRECISION PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PRICE CHANGES PRICE RISK PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCTION INPUTS QUESTIONNAIRES RESEARCHER RESEARCHERS RISK AVERSE RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS SALES SAMPLE SIZE SAVINGS SKEWNESS SOCIAL NETWORKS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS SOURCE OF INFORMATION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TAX UNEMPLOYMENT VALUABLE VARIABILITY WAGE WEALTH WEB YOUNG ADULTS Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| geographic_facet |
The World Region The World Region |
| relation |
Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4824 |
| description |
The majority of economic decisions taken
by individuals are forward looking and thus involve their
expectations of future outcomes. Understanding the
expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial
importance to designing and evaluating policies in health,
education, finance, migration, social protection, and many
other areas. However, the majority of developing country
surveys are static in nature and do not contain information
on the subjective expectations of individuals. Possible
reasons given for not collecting this information include
fears that poor, illiterate individuals do not understand
probability concepts, that it takes far too much time to ask
such questions, or that the answers add little value. This
paper provides a critical review and new analysis of
subjective expectations data from developing countries and
refutes each of these concerns. The authors find that people
in developing countries can generally understand and answer
probabilistic questions, such questions are not prohibitive
in time to ask, and the expectations are useful predictors
of future behavior and economic decisions. The paper
discusses the different methods being tried for eliciting
such information, the key methodological issues involved,
and the open research questions. The available evidence
suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible
and valuable, suggesting that it should be incorporated into
more developing country surveys. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David |
| author_facet |
Delavande, Adeline Giné, Xavier McKenzie, David |
| author_sort |
Delavande, Adeline |
| title |
Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| title_short |
Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| title_full |
Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| title_fullStr |
Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries : A Critical Review and New Evidence |
| title_sort |
measuring subjective expectations in developing countries : a critical review and new evidence |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090129100701 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4021 |
| _version_ |
1764389538747121664 |