The Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa : A CGE Modeling Approach
The authors constructed a standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic impact of increased spending on infrastructure in six African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Mali, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda. The basic elements...
Main Authors: | , , |
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2012
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100728140341 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3870 |
Summary: | The authors constructed a standard
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the
economic impact of increased spending on infrastructure in
six African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Mali, Senegal,
Tanzania, and Uganda. The basic elements of the model are
drawn from EXTER, adjusted to accommodate infrastructure
externalities. Seven sectors were considered: food crop
agriculture, export agriculture, mining and oil,
manufacturing, construction, private services, and public
services. Four sets of simulations were conducted: baseline
nonproductive investments, roads, electricity, and telecoms.
For each set of simulations, five funding schemes were
considered: reduced public expenditure; increased
value-added taxes; increased import duties; funding from
foreign aid; and increased income taxes. In general, the
funding schemes had similar qualitative and quantitative
effects on macro variables. For road and electricity
investment, there were relatively large quantitative
differences and some qualitative differences among funding
schemes at the macro level. Sectoral analysis revealed
further disparities among countries and investment types.
The same type of investment with the same funding sources
had varying effects depending on the economic structure of
the sector in question. The authors find that few sectors
are purely tradable or non-tradable, having instead variable
degrees of openness to trade. If the current account needs
to be balanced, funding investment through foreign aid
produces the strongest sectoral effects because strong price
and nominal exchange rate adjustments are needed to clear
the current account balance. In addition, the capital/labor
ratio of each sector plays an important role in determining
its winners and losers. |
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