Poverty and Violence : The Immediate Impact of Terrorist Attacks against Civilians in Somalia
Somalia, one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, still faces many challenges as it remains fragile. Terrorist groups and their attacks are threatening the government and limiting its capacity to implement effective development policies....
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099415109082281442/IDU03861d1b0002f304b090b8c80ea73003b5ba6 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37986 |
| Summary: | Somalia, one of the poorest countries
in Sub-Saharan Africa, still faces many challenges as it
remains fragile. Terrorist groups and their attacks are
threatening the government and limiting its capacity to
implement effective development policies. Using
difference-in-difference and instrumental variables
approaches with micro-data from two waves of the Somali High
Frequency Survey, this paper estimates the immediate (within
a week) impact of terrorist attacks on households. The
consumption of households exposed to terrorist incidents
decreases by 33 percent, mainly on food items. As a result,
poverty and the depth of poverty among the poor increases.
The decline in consumption seems to be explained by a
smaller share of household members working and earning
income after an attack. In addition, the effect on
consumption is restricted to a 4-kilometer radius from
incidents and has a heterogeneous impact, not affecting
households in the top 20 percent of the consumption
distribution. The paper also finds a deterioration in
people’s perception of police competence. Achieving peace is
a fundamental first step to increase welfare conditions that
will also bring other wider long-term benefits in Somalia. |
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