Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery

This paper examines the effectiveness of income protection and job protection policies for the post-pandemic economic recovery of the second half of 2020 through 2021. The paper is based on a new data set of the budgets of social protection program...

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Main Authors:	Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Lokshin, Michael, Torre, Iván
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2022
Subjects:	JOB PROTECTION MEASURES LABOR MARKET POLICY SOCIAL PROTECTION CASH TRANSFERS UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE JOB RETENTION PANDEMIC STIMULUS EFFECTIVENESS ECONOMIC INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099521409072229295/IDU0237221f202381046df0aa8104aa167b992f0 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37973

id	okr-10986-37973
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-379732022-09-08T05:10:31Z Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli Lokshin, Michael Torre, Iván JOB PROTECTION MEASURES LABOR MARKET POLICY SOCIAL PROTECTION CASH TRANSFERS UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE JOB RETENTION PANDEMIC STIMULUS EFFECTIVENESS ECONOMIC INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERY This paper examines the effectiveness of income protection and job protection policies for the post-pandemic economic recovery of the second half of 2020 through 2021. The paper is based on a new data set of the budgets of social protection programs implemented as a part of the pandemic stimulus package in 154 countries. The empirical analysis shows that, in the short run, higher expenditure on job protection measures is associated with more robust gross domestic product growth, increased employment, and decreased inactivity and poverty rates compared to the expansion of income protection programs. Both policies had a significant economic impact only in countries with weaker pre-pandemic social insurance systems. In countries with broader coverage of the social insurance system, the income and job protection programs appear to have had a limited impact on post-pandemic recovery. Because the structural economic changes induced by the pandemic are expected to materialize fully in several years, more research is needed to understand the longer-term effects of job protection and income protection policies on labor markets and economic recovery. 2022-09-07T19:11:54Z 2022-09-07T19:11:54Z 2022-09 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099521409072229295/IDU0237221f202381046df0aa8104aa167b992f0 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37973 English en Policy Research Working Papers;10166 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English English
topic	JOB PROTECTION MEASURES LABOR MARKET POLICY SOCIAL PROTECTION CASH TRANSFERS UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE JOB RETENTION PANDEMIC STIMULUS EFFECTIVENESS ECONOMIC INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERY
spellingShingle	JOB PROTECTION MEASURES LABOR MARKET POLICY SOCIAL PROTECTION CASH TRANSFERS UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE JOB RETENTION PANDEMIC STIMULUS EFFECTIVENESS ECONOMIC INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERY Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli Lokshin, Michael Torre, Iván Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
relation	Policy Research Working Papers;10166
description	This paper examines the effectiveness of income protection and job protection policies for the post-pandemic economic recovery of the second half of 2020 through 2021. The paper is based on a new data set of the budgets of social protection programs implemented as a part of the pandemic stimulus package in 154 countries. The empirical analysis shows that, in the short run, higher expenditure on job protection measures is associated with more robust gross domestic product growth, increased employment, and decreased inactivity and poverty rates compared to the expansion of income protection programs. Both policies had a significant economic impact only in countries with weaker pre-pandemic social insurance systems. In countries with broader coverage of the social insurance system, the income and job protection programs appear to have had a limited impact on post-pandemic recovery. Because the structural economic changes induced by the pandemic are expected to materialize fully in several years, more research is needed to understand the longer-term effects of job protection and income protection policies on labor markets and economic recovery.
format	Working Paper
author	Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli Lokshin, Michael Torre, Iván
author_facet	Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli Lokshin, Michael Torre, Iván
author_sort	Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli
title	Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
title_short	Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
title_full	Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
title_fullStr	Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
title_full_unstemmed	Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
title_sort	protect incomes or protect jobs? the role of social policies in post-pandemic recovery
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2022
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099521409072229295/IDU0237221f202381046df0aa8104aa167b992f0 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37973
_version_	1764488231326318592

Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery

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