Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy

This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around th...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Nadaud, Franck
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ALTERNATIVE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGIES APPROACH BIOMASS CARBON CARBON ENERGY CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY COAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONVERGENCE EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY RESEARCH ENERGY SCENARIOS ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS FOSSIL FOSSIL ENERGY FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FREE ENERGY GAS GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IPCC LOW OIL PRICES MEMBER STATES NUCLEAR ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SHOCK PHYSICS PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION TYPES OF ENERGY WASTE WIND WIND ENERGY WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100507125657 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3784

id	okr-10986-3784
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-37842021-04-23T14:02:12Z Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy Hourcade, Jean-Charles Nadaud, Franck ALTERNATIVE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGIES APPROACH BIOMASS CARBON CARBON ENERGY CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY COAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONVERGENCE EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY RESEARCH ENERGY SCENARIOS ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS FOSSIL FOSSIL ENERGY FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FREE ENERGY GAS GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IPCC LOW OIL PRICES MEMBER STATES NUCLEAR ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SHOCK PHYSICS PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION TYPES OF ENERGY WASTE WIND WIND ENERGY WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto. 2012-03-19T18:39:45Z 2012-03-19T18:39:45Z 2010-05-01 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100507125657 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3784 English Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5298 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper The World Region The World Region
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ALTERNATIVE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGIES APPROACH BIOMASS CARBON CARBON ENERGY CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY COAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONVERGENCE EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY RESEARCH ENERGY SCENARIOS ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS FOSSIL FOSSIL ENERGY FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FREE ENERGY GAS GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IPCC LOW OIL PRICES MEMBER STATES NUCLEAR ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SHOCK PHYSICS PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION TYPES OF ENERGY WASTE WIND WIND ENERGY WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
spellingShingle	ALTERNATIVE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGIES APPROACH BIOMASS CARBON CARBON ENERGY CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY COAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONVERGENCE EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY MODELS ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY RESEARCH ENERGY SCENARIOS ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY SYSTEMS FOSSIL FOSSIL ENERGY FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FREE ENERGY GAS GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IPCC LOW OIL PRICES MEMBER STATES NUCLEAR ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SHOCK PHYSICS PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY RENEWABLE ENERGIES RENEWABLE ENERGY TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION TYPES OF ENERGY WASTE WIND WIND ENERGY WORLD ENERGY WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Hourcade, Jean-Charles Nadaud, Franck Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
geographic_facet	The World Region The World Region
relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5298
description	This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Hourcade, Jean-Charles Nadaud, Franck
author_facet	Hourcade, Jean-Charles Nadaud, Franck
author_sort	Hourcade, Jean-Charles
title	Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
title_short	Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
title_full	Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
title_fullStr	Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
title_full_unstemmed	Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy
title_sort	thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy
publishDate	2012
url	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100507125657 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3784
_version_	1764388329531375616

Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy

Similar Items