Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy

Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy

This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Nadaud, Franck
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STRATEGIES
APPROACH
BIOMASS
CARBON
CARBON ENERGY
CARBON PRICES
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
CLEAN ENERGY
CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
CLIMATE POLICIES
CLIMATE POLICY
COAL
COMMERCIAL ENERGY
CONVERGENCE
EMISSION
EMISSION SCENARIOS
EMISSIONS
EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY NEEDS
ENERGY OUTLOOK
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY PRICES
ENERGY PRODUCTION
ENERGY RESEARCH
ENERGY SCENARIOS
ENERGY SOURCE
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY STRATEGY
ENERGY SUPPLY
ENERGY SYSTEMS
FOSSIL
FOSSIL ENERGY
FOSSIL FUEL
FOSSIL FUELS
FREE ENERGY
GAS
GENERATION
GENERATION CAPACITY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
IPCC
LOW OIL PRICES
MEMBER STATES
NUCLEAR ENERGY
NUCLEAR POWER
OIL
OIL EQUIVALENT
OIL PRICE
OIL PRICES
OIL SHOCK
PHYSICS
PRIMARY ENERGY
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
RENEWABLE ENERGY
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
TYPES OF ENERGY
WASTE
WIND
WIND ENERGY
WORLD ENERGY
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100507125657
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3784
Description
Summary:This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.

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