Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security

Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security

This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on di...

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Main Authors: Deininger, Klaus, Ali, Daniel Ayalew, Kussul, Nataliia, Shelestov, Andrii, Lemoine, Guido, Yailimova, Hanna
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
en_US
Published: Washington, DC : World Bank 2022
Subjects:
UKRAINE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
FOOD SECURITY
MACHINE LEARNING
CONFLICT
WAR
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099102207072236777/IDU0de02933f001de04df5087c30538da5ba4b35
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37665
id okr-10986-37665
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-376652022-07-09T05:10:39Z Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security Deininger, Klaus Ali, Daniel Ayalew Kussul, Nataliia Shelestov, Andrii Lemoine, Guido Yailimova, Hanna UKRAINE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FOOD SECURITY MACHINE LEARNING CONFLICT WAR This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% of which is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which is particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons. Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current winter crop can be harvested fully. 2022-07-08T18:29:05Z 2022-07-08T18:29:05Z 2022-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099102207072236777/IDU0de02933f001de04df5087c30538da5ba4b35 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37665 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;10123 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC : World Bank Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Europe and Central Asia Eastern Europe Ukraine
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic UKRAINE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
FOOD SECURITY
MACHINE LEARNING
CONFLICT
WAR
spellingShingle UKRAINE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
FOOD SECURITY
MACHINE LEARNING
CONFLICT
WAR
Deininger, Klaus
Ali, Daniel Ayalew
Kussul, Nataliia
Shelestov, Andrii
Lemoine, Guido
Yailimova, Hanna
Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
geographic_facet Europe and Central Asia
Eastern Europe
Ukraine
relation Policy Research Working Paper;10123
description This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% of which is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which is particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons. Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current winter crop can be harvested fully.
format Working Paper
author Deininger, Klaus
Ali, Daniel Ayalew
Kussul, Nataliia
Shelestov, Andrii
Lemoine, Guido
Yailimova, Hanna
author_facet Deininger, Klaus
Ali, Daniel Ayalew
Kussul, Nataliia
Shelestov, Andrii
Lemoine, Guido
Yailimova, Hanna
author_sort Deininger, Klaus
title Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
title_short Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
title_full Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
title_fullStr Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
title_sort quantifying war-induced crop losses in ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security
publisher Washington, DC : World Bank
publishDate 2022
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099102207072236777/IDU0de02933f001de04df5087c30538da5ba4b35
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37665
_version_ 1764487627922210816

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