Adaptive Experiments for Policy Choice : Phone Calls for Home Reading in Kenya
Adaptive sampling in experiments with multiple waves can improve learning for “policy choice problems” where the goal is to select the optimal intervention or treatment among several options. This paper uses a real-world policy choice problem to de...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099337506232226851/IDU078c6dff10259d0409d0997f0d753a7e2cb72 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37602 |
| Summary: | Adaptive sampling in experiments with
multiple waves can improve learning for “policy choice
problems” where the goal is to select the optimal
intervention or treatment among several options. This paper
uses a real-world policy choice problem to demonstrate the
advantages of adaptive sampling and propose solutions to
common issues in applying the method. The application is a
test of six formats for automated calls to parents in Kenya
that encourage reading with children at home. The adaptive
‘exploration sampling’ algorithm is used to efficiently
identify the call with the highest rate of engagement.
Simulations show that adaptive sampling increased the
posterior probability of the chosen arm being optimal from
86 to 93 percent and more than halved the posterior expected
regret. The paper discusses a range of implementation
aspects, including how to decide about research design
parameters such as the number of experimental waves. |
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