Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan

South Sudan is at a crossroads in its recovery, reconstruction, and development. Having gained independence in 2011 after two protracted civil wars, the country twice relapsed into conflict: first in 2013 and again in 2016. While the economy began...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2022
Subjects:	PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ARMED CONFLICT COVID-19 NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL CAPITAL FOOD INSECURITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099040006102286710/P1691210fecb6b0ce09c300c0d1f63c6c08 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37532

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spelling	okr-10986-375322022-06-14T05:10:38Z Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan World Bank PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ARMED CONFLICT COVID-19 NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL CAPITAL FOOD INSECURITY South Sudan is at a crossroads in its recovery, reconstruction, and development. Having gained independence in 2011 after two protracted civil wars, the country twice relapsed into conflict: first in 2013 and again in 2016. While the economy began to recover following the 2018 peace deal, progress has stalled amidst a multitude of crises – including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate shocks, and dwindling oil production. At the same time, the broad-based rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine have on balance affected South Sudan adversely. A decade after independence, South Sudan remains caught in a web of fragility and economic stagnation, with weak institutions, recurring cycles of violence, and ubiquitous poverty. Overall, the conflict is estimated to have cost South Sudan an accumulated loss in aggregate GDP of some US$81 billion during 2012 – 2018, equivalent to $11.6 billion per year on average (80 percent of 2010 GDP). Consequently, South Sudan’s real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at being one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. With the fragile peace deal largely holding despite challenges in implementation, the authorities initiated an ambitious reform program aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and modernization of the young country’s public financial management systems. This report discusses South Sudan’s economic performance since independence, with a focus on leveraging the country’s endowments of natural capital – oil and arable land – to support recovery and resilience. Three messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in South Sudan. South Sudan’s real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, with better governance and accountability, South Sudan’s oil resources can drive transformation. Third, South Sudan’s chronic food insecurity could be reversed with targeted investments to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector. 2022-06-13T13:11:36Z 2022-06-13T13:11:36Z 2022-06-10 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099040006102286710/P1691210fecb6b0ce09c300c0d1f63c6c08 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37532 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Country Economic Memorandum Economic & Sector Work South Sudan
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ARMED CONFLICT COVID-19 NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL CAPITAL FOOD INSECURITY
spellingShingle	PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ARMED CONFLICT COVID-19 NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL CAPITAL FOOD INSECURITY World Bank Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
geographic_facet	South Sudan
description	South Sudan is at a crossroads in its recovery, reconstruction, and development. Having gained independence in 2011 after two protracted civil wars, the country twice relapsed into conflict: first in 2013 and again in 2016. While the economy began to recover following the 2018 peace deal, progress has stalled amidst a multitude of crises – including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate shocks, and dwindling oil production. At the same time, the broad-based rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine have on balance affected South Sudan adversely. A decade after independence, South Sudan remains caught in a web of fragility and economic stagnation, with weak institutions, recurring cycles of violence, and ubiquitous poverty. Overall, the conflict is estimated to have cost South Sudan an accumulated loss in aggregate GDP of some US$81 billion during 2012 – 2018, equivalent to $11.6 billion per year on average (80 percent of 2010 GDP). Consequently, South Sudan’s real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at being one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. With the fragile peace deal largely holding despite challenges in implementation, the authorities initiated an ambitious reform program aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and modernization of the young country’s public financial management systems. This report discusses South Sudan’s economic performance since independence, with a focus on leveraging the country’s endowments of natural capital – oil and arable land – to support recovery and resilience. Three messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in South Sudan. South Sudan’s real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, with better governance and accountability, South Sudan’s oil resources can drive transformation. Third, South Sudan’s chronic food insecurity could be reversed with targeted investments to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector.
format	Report
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
title_short	Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
title_full	Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
title_fullStr	Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
title_full_unstemmed	Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan
title_sort	directions for reform : a country economic memorandum for recovery and resilience in south sudan
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2022
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099040006102286710/P1691210fecb6b0ce09c300c0d1f63c6c08 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37532
_version_	1764487406779629568

Directions for Reform : A Country Economic Memorandum for Recovery and Resilience in South Sudan

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