Estimating the Demand for Informal Public Transport : Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar
Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urban infrastructure development tends to lag rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growing gap between demand and supply in urban...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099405504182221434/IDU09864799d06d5304ef90a1890ff386a5ac40a http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37321 |
| Summary: | Informal public transport has been
growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urban
infrastructure development tends to lag rapid population
growth, informal public transport often meets the growing
gap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the
rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes,
the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. This
paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibus
sector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a
recent user survey of thousands of people. It finds that the
demand for informal public transport is generally inelastic.
Essentially, people have no other choice. While the time
elasticity is estimated at −0.02 to −0.05, the price
elasticity is −0.05 to −0.06 for short-distance travelers,
who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or
walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demand
also increases with income. Regardless of income level,
everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functions
indicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in
transit. The paper shows that combining these improvements
and fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can
contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducing
traffic congestion in the city. |
|---|