Will the Clean Development Mechanism Mobilize Anticipated Levels of Mitigation?
Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in developing countries by investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism. Yet Clean Development Mechanism investments have so far failed to reach many...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100316150946 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3726 |
| Summary: | Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed
countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in
developing countries by investing in projects under the
Clean Development Mechanism. Yet Clean Development Mechanism
investments have so far failed to reach many of the
high-potential sectors identified by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. This raises doubts about whether
the Clean Development Mechanism can generate an adequate
supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved
successful. This paper examines the current trajectory of
mitigation projects entering the Clean Development Mechanism
pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that
the diffusion of the Clean Development Mechanism will follow
a path similar to other innovations. Projections are then
compared with pre-Clean Development Mechanism predictions of
the mechanism s potential market size to discern whether
limits on the types of projects entering the pipeline have
limited the expected supply of certified emission
reductions. Parameter tests suggest that this is not the
case and that currently identified Clean Development
Mechanism investments will generate offsets in excess of
early model predictions. In particular, under favorable
circumstances, the mechanism is on track to deliver an
average annual flow of roughly 700 million certified
emission reductions by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1,100
million certified emission reductions by 2020. |
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