Myanmar Economic Monitor, January 2022 : Contending with Constraints
Myanmar’s economy continues to be severely tested by the ongoing impacts of the military coup and the surge in COVID-19 cases in 2021. While some real-time indicators have improved in recent months, they remain consistent with a much lower level of...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/099125001262248277/P1770020efdd8702708f9d0c44309d295c4 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36889 |
| Summary: | Myanmar’s economy continues to be
severely tested by the ongoing impacts of the military coup
and the surge in COVID-19 cases in 2021. While some
real-time indicators have improved in recent months, they
remain consistent with a much lower level of economic
activity than prior to the February coup. Reported COVID-19
cases have fallen to low levels (and few reported cases of
the Omicron variant as of early January 2022), while real
time indicators of mobility, manufacturing activity, and
exports are showing signs of recovering. On the other hand,
indicators of conflict suggest that the security environment
has deteriorated in many parts of Myanmar, including in
states and regions which have historically been relatively
peaceful. This has affected businesses’ operations,
logistics, confidence, and appetite to invest. After the
sharp decline in incomes and employment observed across the
economy, available indicators suggest domestic demand
remains very weak. At the same time, supply-side constraints
persist and some have worsened in recent months. Access to
kyat liquidity, credit, and foreign currency remains
severely constrained. A sharp exchange rate depreciation in
September 2021 has raised import prices across the economy,
including of fuel and other critical inputs to production,
increasing transport costs. Electricity outages are a
growing concern and internet disruptions continue to reduce
the reliability of firms’ and households’ connectivity and
ability to access information and connect with markets (see
Part III: Digital Disruptions and Economic Impacts). |
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