Iraq Economic Monitor, Fall 2021 : The Slippery Road to Economic Recovery
The fall 2021 issue of the Iraq Economic Monitor provides an in-depth review of the latest macroeconomic and policy developments amidst a global recovery in international oil markets and as COVID-19 restrictions begin to ease. As a result, the moni...
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Format: | Report |
Language: | English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/981071637593726857/Iraq-Economic-Monitor-The-Slippery-Road-to-Economic-Recovery http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36620 |
Summary: | The fall 2021 issue of the Iraq
Economic Monitor provides an in-depth review of the latest
macroeconomic and policy developments amidst a global
recovery in international oil markets and as COVID-19
restrictions begin to ease. As a result, the monitor finds
that the economic prospects for Iraq have improved, with GDP
projected to grow from 2.6 percent in 2021 to exceed 6
percent in 2022-23, turning both fiscal and external
deficits into surpluses. Nevertheless, upstream risks like
oil shocks, droughts, and new COVID-19 variants; coupled
with fiscal risks like growing budget rigidities, slow
clearance of arrears, large exposure of state-owned banks
and the central bank to the sovereign, and public investment
management constraints that impact public service delivery
can all materialize anytime to turn the tide as Iraq’s
recent history has repeatedly shown. The breadth and depth
of these challenges underscore the need for an accelerated
implementation of structural reforms by the new government
along the lines of the White of Paper. The Special Focus of
the report discusses water scarcity and the degradation of
water quality in Iraq. It highlights the large losses water
issues impose across multiple sectors of the economy and the
impact on vulnerable people. Indeed, a 20 percent reduction
in water supply with changes in crop yields could reduce
real GDP in Iraq by up to 4 percent, or US$6.6 billion. The
monitor highlights the importance of dealing with those
issues to reduce fragilities and identifies three reform
areas to improve resilience to water scarcity and climate
change impacts through water efficiency, productivity, and
demand management policies; institutional solutions; and
regional solutions. |
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