Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal
The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundsw...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36445 |
| Summary: | The World Bank’s flagship report
Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds
that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of
climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded
and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on
West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The
recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate
and development action, West Africa could see as many as
32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate
impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem
productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge.
These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5
percent of the total population of West Africa.
Understanding the scale and the patterns of these
climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to
inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert,
minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for
dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050,
internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than
1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the
population, at the high end of the confidence interval under
the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with
unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more
inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate
migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating
the scale of climate migration are realized under the
optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with
moderate development pathways. The number of climate
migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the
pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050
under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a
reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the
critical need for both inclusive development and low
emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with
the greatest gains achieved through early action. |
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