COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official Death Counts and Excess Deaths
Using official COVID-19 death counts for 64 countries and excess death estimates for 41 countries, this paper finds a higher share of pandemic-related deaths in 2020 were at younger ages in middle-income countries compared to high-income countries....
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/718461634217653573/COVID-19-Age-Mortality-Curves-for-2020-Are-Flatter-in-Developing-Countries-Using-Both-Official-Death-Counts-and-Excess-Deaths http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36425 |
| Summary: | Using official COVID-19 death counts
for 64 countries and excess death estimates for 41
countries, this paper finds a higher share of
pandemic-related deaths in 2020 were at younger ages in
middle-income countries compared to high-income countries.
People under age 65 constituted on average (1) 11 percent of
both official deaths and excess deaths in high-income
countries, (2) 40 percent of official deaths and 37 percent
of excess deaths in upper-middle-income countries, and (3)
54 percent of official deaths in lower-middle-income
countries. These contrasting profiles are due only in part
to differences in population age structure. Both COVID-19
and excess death age-mortality curves are flatter in
countries with lower incomes. This is a result of some
combination of variation in age patterns of infection rates
and infection fatality rates. In countries with very low
death rates, excess mortality is substantially negative at
older ages, suggesting that pandemic-related precautions
have lowered non-COVID-19 deaths. Additionally, the United
States has a younger distribution of deaths than countries
with similar levels of income. |
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