Measuring the Economic Impact of COVID-19 with Real-Time Electricity Indicators
The COVID-19 pandemic is posing unprecedented challenges, making it difficult for policy makers to design appropriate policies. In this context, real-time information can play a most valuable role for policy makers in developing countries, particul...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/851591634215208306/Measuring-the-Economic-Impact-of-COVID-19-with-Real-Time-Electricity-Indicators http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36424 |
| Summary: | The COVID-19 pandemic is posing
unprecedented challenges, making it difficult for policy
makers to design appropriate policies. In this context,
real-time information can play a most valuable role for
policy makers in developing countries, particularly since
official economic indicators, such as the evolution of GDP
and unemployment, not only are released with considerable
delays, but also are not always fully reliable. This paper
follows the literature by using the dependent variable
electricity consumption per capita as a proxy measure of
economic activity in the short run. Based on this method, it
examines the short-run economic impact of the pandemic
itself, as well as the public health restrictions that were
adopted to control the outbreak and the macro-economic
measures applied to revive the economy. The analysis
confirms the significant cost of lockdown measures in terms
of reduction in economic activity but finds that the spread
of the disease itself had an economic impact distinct from
that of the lockdown measures. The analysis shows that the
use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies also played
a key role in mitigating such an impact, driving some
initial recovery. Finally, the evidence points to a complete
structural break in economic activity at the onset of the
lockdown period. |
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