Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries

This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular ana...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Rigaud, Kanta Kumari, de Sherbinin, Alex, Jones, Bryan, Adamo, Susana, Maleki, David, Abu-Ata, Nathalie E., Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko, Arora, Anmol, Chai-Onn, Tricia, Mills, Briar
Format: Report
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/453241634531082194/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36404
id okr-10986-36404
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-364042021-10-27T05:10:43Z Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries Rigaud, Kanta Kumari de Sherbinin, Alex Jones, Bryan Adamo, Susana Maleki, David Abu-Ata, Nathalie E. Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko Arora, Anmol Chai-Onn, Tricia Mills, Briar CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE MIGRATION ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION DISPLACEMENT INTERNAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION DEMOGRAPHICS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS COASTAL ECOSYSTEM SEA LEVEL RISE EROSION This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. These numbers are not predestined—and could be reduced at the regional level by about 60 percent with concrete climate and development action. Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. A special focus on the 5-kilometer coastal zone of West Africa reveals that between 0.3 million and 2.2 million people could be compelled to move within their countries just for this coastal belt by 2050. This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing. 2021-10-26T19:21:07Z 2021-10-26T19:21:07Z 2021-10-18 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/453241634531082194/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36404 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper Africa West Africa Benin Burkina Faso Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE MIGRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION
DISPLACEMENT
INTERNAL MIGRATION
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
DEMOGRAPHICS
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
COASTAL ECOSYSTEM
SEA LEVEL RISE
EROSION
spellingShingle CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE MIGRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION
DISPLACEMENT
INTERNAL MIGRATION
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
DEMOGRAPHICS
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
COASTAL ECOSYSTEM
SEA LEVEL RISE
EROSION
Rigaud, Kanta Kumari
de Sherbinin, Alex
Jones, Bryan
Adamo, Susana
Maleki, David
Abu-Ata, Nathalie E.
Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko
Arora, Anmol
Chai-Onn, Tricia
Mills, Briar
Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
geographic_facet Africa
West Africa
Benin
Burkina Faso
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
description This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. These numbers are not predestined—and could be reduced at the regional level by about 60 percent with concrete climate and development action. Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. A special focus on the 5-kilometer coastal zone of West Africa reveals that between 0.3 million and 2.2 million people could be compelled to move within their countries just for this coastal belt by 2050. This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.
format Report
author Rigaud, Kanta Kumari
de Sherbinin, Alex
Jones, Bryan
Adamo, Susana
Maleki, David
Abu-Ata, Nathalie E.
Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko
Arora, Anmol
Chai-Onn, Tricia
Mills, Briar
author_facet Rigaud, Kanta Kumari
de Sherbinin, Alex
Jones, Bryan
Adamo, Susana
Maleki, David
Abu-Ata, Nathalie E.
Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko
Arora, Anmol
Chai-Onn, Tricia
Mills, Briar
author_sort Rigaud, Kanta Kumari
title Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
title_short Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
title_full Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
title_fullStr Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
title_full_unstemmed Groundswell Africa : Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
title_sort groundswell africa : internal climate migration in west african countries
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2021
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/453241634531082194/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36404
_version_ 1764485175041851392