Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia
To what extent do the behavioral choices of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses nationally representative, three-wave h...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/289351629811668275/Climate-Shocks-Vulnerability-Resilience-and-Livelihoods-in-Rural-Zambia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36200 |
| Summary: | To what extent do the behavioral choices
of Zambian smallholder farmers influence the negative
effects of climate shocks, and what impact do these choices
have on vulnerability and resilience? This paper uses
nationally representative, three-wave household-level panel
data to investigate these questions. The empirical
estimation employs an instrumental variable probit
regression model, which also controls for the endogeneity of
key choice variables. There are four main empirical
findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate
shock rural smallholder farmers in Zambia face, but the
extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and
Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, about
three-quarters of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and
only about one-quarter are resilient. Second, increased
climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability
and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations
in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience.
Third, higher asset endowments and education level of the
household head reduce vulnerability and increase resilience
among smallholder farmers. Female-headed households are more
vulnerable and less resilient, on average. Fourth, the use
of climate-smart agricultural practices—namely, minimum
tillage and use of inorganic fertilizers or hybrid maize
seed—significantly improves household resilience in the
short term. The paper draws two main policy implications
from the findings. First, the results point to an urgent
need to invest in research and development for climate
shock–tolerant crop varieties and in broader climate-smart
agricultural technologies to scale out and scale up
context-specific practices through innovative digital
platforms. Second, more investment is needed in risk
mitigation strategies such as weather indexed insurance,
targeted social cash transfers and how to make these work
effectively for smallholder farmers. Other important
complementary elements include investment in innovative
digital platforms that can facilitate timely delivery of
climate information services and facilitating asset
accumulation and education that can enable farmers to
improve climate shock resilience over time. |
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