Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India

Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India

The main goal of the present paper is to explain whether trade and output specialization patterns may help explain the evolution of output co-movement of Latin American countries China and India. Using a sample of 147 countries over the period 1965...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Calderon, Cesar
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2021
Subjects:
IMPACT OF TRADE INTEGRATION
BILATERAL TRADE
BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION
CRUDE OIL PRICE
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INCREASING SPECIALIZATION
PREDICTED CHANGE
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/514601468327000025/Trade-specialization-and-cycle-synchronization-explaining-output-comovement-between-Latin-America-China-and-India
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36114
id okr-10986-36114
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-361142021-08-14T05:10:34Z Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India Calderon, Cesar IMPACT OF TRADE INTEGRATION BILATERAL TRADE BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION CRUDE OIL PRICE REGRESSION ANALYSIS INCREASING SPECIALIZATION PREDICTED CHANGE The main goal of the present paper is to explain whether trade and output specialization patterns may help explain the evolution of output co-movement of Latin American countries China and India. Using a sample of 147 countries over the period 1965-2004 we update and extend the results in Calderon, Chong and Stein (2006) to show that higher trade intensity (especially more extensive intra-industry trade links) and more symmetric structures of production (as well as of exports and imports) may lead to more synchronous cycles. For the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region as a whole, the model predicts fairly well the changes in output comovement of LAC countries China and India (more than 50 percent). However, the performance of the model across countries shows a wide variation. 2021-08-13T18:39:40Z 2021-08-13T18:39:40Z 2007-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/514601468327000025/Trade-specialization-and-cycle-synchronization-explaining-output-comovement-between-Latin-America-China-and-India http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36114 English en CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Asia Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras India Jamaica Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
English
topic IMPACT OF TRADE INTEGRATION
BILATERAL TRADE
BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION
CRUDE OIL PRICE
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INCREASING SPECIALIZATION
PREDICTED CHANGE
spellingShingle IMPACT OF TRADE INTEGRATION
BILATERAL TRADE
BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION
CRUDE OIL PRICE
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INCREASING SPECIALIZATION
PREDICTED CHANGE
Calderon, Cesar
Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
geographic_facet Latin America & Caribbean
Asia
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
India
Jamaica
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de
description The main goal of the present paper is to explain whether trade and output specialization patterns may help explain the evolution of output co-movement of Latin American countries China and India. Using a sample of 147 countries over the period 1965-2004 we update and extend the results in Calderon, Chong and Stein (2006) to show that higher trade intensity (especially more extensive intra-industry trade links) and more symmetric structures of production (as well as of exports and imports) may lead to more synchronous cycles. For the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region as a whole, the model predicts fairly well the changes in output comovement of LAC countries China and India (more than 50 percent). However, the performance of the model across countries shows a wide variation.
format Working Paper
author Calderon, Cesar
author_facet Calderon, Cesar
author_sort Calderon, Cesar
title Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
title_short Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
title_full Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
title_fullStr Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
title_full_unstemmed Trade, Specialization and Cycle Synchronization : Explaining Output Comovement between Latin America, China and India
title_sort trade, specialization and cycle synchronization : explaining output comovement between latin america, china and india
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2021
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/514601468327000025/Trade-specialization-and-cycle-synchronization-explaining-output-comovement-between-Latin-America-China-and-India
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36114
_version_ 1764484454493978624

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