Myanmar Economic Monitor, July 2021 : Progress Threatened; Resilience Tested
In February 2021 the military assumed power in Myanmar, setting back the country’s democratic transition, and immediately impacting an economy that had already been weakened by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the initial economic impacts...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Myanmar
2021
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/884011627285477076/Myanmar-Economic-Monitor-Progress-Threatened-Resilience-Tested http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36020 |
| Summary: | In February 2021 the military assumed
power in Myanmar, setting back the country’s democratic
transition, and immediately impacting an economy that had
already been weakened by Coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19). While the initial economic impacts of the coup
were extremely severe, in May and June there were early
signs that constraints were easing in some areas. Mobility
at retail and transport venues improved after the Thingyan
holiday in April, and there were reports that factory
workers, bank staff, and some public servants had returned
to work. Several international apparel buyers resumed
placing new orders with garment manufacturers, and logistics
bottlenecks eased. Amid substantial uncertainty around the
magnitude and duration of recent economic shocks, there are
large risks associated with these projections. Relatively
severe economic impacts already appear to have persisted for
longer than what was assumed even in March, when the authors
projected a 10 percent contraction in gross domestic product
(GDP) in FY21. The third wave of COVID-19 will have
substantial additional economic impacts in the September
quarter, although the magnitude of these impacts will depend
on how the outbreak evolves. Since February the environment
for doing business has worsened considerably, impacting
productivity across the economy as scarce resources are
allocated toward dealing with supply-side constraints. Lost
months of education at school and university are of critical
concern, including because of the longer-term implications
for the accumulation of human capital and productive
capacity. With these fundamental drivers of long-term growth
at risk, there are already early signs of increased
dependence on extractive and or illicit activities, and a
return to the inward-looking policies that have
characterized much of Myanmar’s history. |
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